Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Welcoming "Singtel" into my portfolio

Finally, I added a telco (Singtel S$3.05) into my portfolio.

I have been waiting for Singtel to drop for quite some time now and for the past few weeks it has indeed drop lower and lower. After a while, I decided to add this as part of my long-term portfolio. I queued for this in the morning and only got it at around 4.40 pm so huge support at 3.05.

My basis for buying this counter is because of its dividends which yields at approximately 5% and will go ex-dividend in August (S$0.09) and December, which is not a very long time given that now is already June.

Having said that, as I am typing this, Dow is down another 140 points (not really shocking given the circumstances these days) so I will be more than happy to add more to my position if the price is attractive enough.

Sunday, May 27, 2012

Great Singapore Sale has started this weekend...Are we seeing a great sale in stock soon?

The Great Singapore Sale (GSS) has officially started this weekend. I went to the Chinatown this evening and goodness me there were so many crowds in the OG shopping area, buying things that were on sale - some 20 to 50% off the original price.

So are we having a great global sale in stocks and shares too? Maybe soon? Everyone seem to be eyeing on the 17th June date where probably finally we are going to have a clearer idea on whether the Greek is going to accept the idea of an austerity or an exit from the Euro. Until then, we are probably going to see market trending sideways with no clear pictures until the 17th June.

Even if that is so, everyone seem to have already priced in Greek exit into the market. What is more dangerous if Greece decides to stay in Euro and the contagion spreads to their neighbouring countries, more notably Portugal and Spain. That is when we are probably going to see the real fear in the market.

The US will give a lending hand surely, at least until the election period - in the form of not-too-bad economic reports and quantitative easing. But a gloomy period awaits next year when the Bush tax rules expires and we began a new tax rules under the new President.

If the Europe is unable to settle their issues or make it worse next year, in addition to the much weakening economy of China (lower PMI manufacturing index evident), we will probably see a return to the 2008-2009 Global Financial crisis level.

It is going to be dragging... at least for much a while more...

Saturday, May 19, 2012

Saturday, May 12, 2012

Bookmakers call it off on Greece exit!!!

I've come across this interesting article on bookmakers across the Euro region on the betting for Greece exit. I already have an account with Betfair which I have used to bet on soccer rather than political regime betting. So do you have an account with them? :p

Bookmakers in Britain have suspended all bets; if Greece, will be leaving the eurozone due to the current political upheaval in the country.

William Hill and Ladbrokes have suspended all bets on whether Greece will be leaving the eurozone. Betting on William Hill had increased on Greece leaving the eurozone that it had been deemed to risky to continue taking new bets. The odds had actually been pushed to down to a quarter. The increased bets on whether Greece will be leaving were attributed to the fact that the country is having political troubles, after leaders in Greece were unable to form any government. This has increased fears that Greece could be heading to a single currency.

Greece’s capital, Athens is in chaos as voters who had recently elected new leaders showed their anger over the new measures on austerity. This has put leaders in the country in limbo, and they are still trying to create a sustainable government. This has led to great uncertainty over the country’s continued membership in the eurozone causing jitters in Europe and the world markets. It is this uncertainty that has led to Ladbrokes suspending all bets in lieu of the country’s withdrawal from the euro.

Greece has been a favorite among betters for a while, but with the elections and subsections chaos in Greece, every one has had a change of heart, and it is the only the thing that people want to bet on. William Hill, which is also the biggest betting firm in Britain, said that that such a situation was dangerous, and unhealthy, because it was becoming increasingly hard to make a book. On the other hand Ladbrokes said that it, suspended betting on the issue because they had been cutting the odds for a while now. The second biggest betting firm said that suspending the bets was better because it was safer in the long run. However, Ladbrokes is still taking bets that the Greek stock market will loose more than 25% in a single day’s trading by the end of this year. Additionally, due to the fears that have been expressed: that the withdrawal of Greece would be the beginning of the end of the euro. Then Ladbrokes is offering bets on the odds that by the end of this year, the euro will no longer be there. This bet, when taken would mean that any bet made, would be thirty three times, its original stake. Other odds offered by Ladbrokes PLC (LON:LAD) include odds that the euro will stop existing by the 2015, odds of 5/6, and odds of 4/1 that two or more countries will have left the eurozone by the end of this year. However, William Hill has placed bets that the euro will stop existing by 2015, and odds that had been gotten before the suspension of betting showing that 11/10 were against the odds, and 4/6 supporting it. Nonetheless, the two largest bookies in Britain said that as soon as Greece stabilizes, then it will reopen its books to the market and resume betting.

Dividends Update - May/June 2012

The month of May/June is traditionally a half-time stopover for many people as many companies are paying out dividends in May to shareholders and shareholders in turn can use this opportunity to shake up or add to their portfolios using these money.

CapitalMall Asia - $150 (received) - 9 May 2012
St Engineering - $1000 - 17 May 2012
Mapletree Industrial - $22 - 29 May 2012
CapitalMall Trust - $23 - 30 May 2012
First Reit - $120 - 30 May 2012
FraserCenter Point - $250 - 30 May 2012
YangZiJiang - $330 - 31 May 2012
Parkway Life - $150 - 5 June 2012

I will be keeping a lookout on a few of these counters below especially if the market dips lower and give us an opporunity to enter. I have been wanting to add or accumulate these counters and I think the best time to add is when market panicks should Greece defaults next week and get kick out of the Eurozone by the end of 2012. That should provide a relatively safe margin of safety to add to the market. I will be looking closely at the following counters:

Target Price
CapitalMall Trust - $1.70
YangZiJiang/NOL/Noble - $1.00
Keppel Corp - $9.30
Sempcorp Ind - $4.00
ComfortDelGro - $1.43
St Engineering - $2.85

Will it reach my target price?? I will be happy to wait out if not.

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Buy or Sell in May - even with dividends coming in!!

The month of May for over the years has generally been a month of "thoughts" for most people.

For myself at least, I have a lot of stocks that I own going ex-dividend at the month of May and (don't misunderstood me) yes indeed very happy I am. However, as many would have already known, the month of May has traditionally been a month of "sell" and many of the index would fall quite sharply at times, causing individual stocks to fall as a result. Because of this incident, it made me think whether it is beneficial for shareholders to take their dividends in May when the stock would instead go lower after they have gone ex-dividend.

For example, my ST Engineering was reaching $3.30 a day before it goes ex-dividend. The dividend given out was $0.125. However, (traditionally as well), the stock would fall to near $3 everytime it goes ex-dividend during this period, which has led me thinking whether it is worthwhile to take the dividend when it goes much lower than the dividend given (almost two times!!).

The same incident goes for Plife Reit for example today. The stock reached a high 1.91 a day before it goes ex-dividend and then slump to 1.80 the day it goes xd. The dividend given is only 0.025 but the shares goes down almost 4 times the amount of the dividend.

Could this be because of the Europe crisis going on or generally the case for so usually? Would selling the stock a day before it goes ex-dividend more worthwhile in the long run than taking the dividend itself?

Appreciate if anyone has experience on this.

Thursday, May 3, 2012

Parkway Life Reit - 1st Quarter 2012 Results

Parkway Life Real Estate Investment Trust (“PLife REIT”) posted their 1st Quarter results for 2012 (“1Q 2012”) this morning and unsurprisingly with another stable and good results. Some of the highlights of the results include:

- Gross revenue of S$22.8 million, which represents a 6% increase y-o-y from 1st Quarter 2011.

- Distribution Per Unit (DPU) of 2.56 for the quarter, which represents a 8.5% increase y-o-y from 1st Quarter 2011. With its latest closing price at 1.865, this represents an approximately 5.5% yield. For a stable reit business model with impressive growth rate year to year, this seems like a good value.

- Gearing level is at 35.3%, which is at a comfortable level with ample debt headroom and funding sources.

- Moving forward, Plife Reits do seem like it will further acquire potential quality private healthcare in Japan, boosting its already multi-properties owned in Japan.

- With increasing demand for healthcare services and the rising of ageing populations (especially in Japan), Plife Reits will definitely look to benefit from the trend.

- I am vested with 6 lots.