Terra Luna and UST have been making the headlines in the past recent weeks as the crypto market goes into turmoil mode when one of the more stablecoins erupted overnight and send its value plunging almost close to nil (well, not exactly nil as we see later how much the market cap is right now given the amount of dilution).
Stablecoins are the main feature of the Terra protocol where as a form of digital currency it was supposed to be valued just like a fiat currency but with blockchain’s additional benefits – instant transactions, faster settlement times and cheaper processing fees.
It has been a tough few weeks for someone who’s invested in the above as we saw the value of Terra Luna crashing down from just above $20b to around $1.3b where they are right now.
In essence, if you have invested $1m in Luna the previous week, it would have been worth just $3 today, and of course this is only easy to predict on hindsight as blackswan erupts.
While many folks are affected and wounded, there are also a group of people who remain confident in the outlook prospect and taking a punt on its comeback – so they’ve put a reasonable amount of money like $500, $1000, $2000 into the investment hoping it will make a strong comeback and defy the odds.
Unfortunately, the mint supply for Luna over the past couple of days have been going crazy as it increased ~20x fold from over 300m before the crash happened to just slightly above 6,532b (I hope I get my counting right, this is just too much decimal for me).
That is an increase of over 1892908.5% just from a week ago – an insane amount of supply circulating out.
Punters who are hoping that the Luna price will go back to $100 (or even at $1) may have to think about whether it is worth at $632b market cap when it happens after the dilution takes place.
“Cherry Picking” is a style of data analysis used when a researcher has inadequate information or data to showcase but still has to work with minimal data set nevertheless.
When presenting the results, the theoretical structure of the analysis is presented and commented in such a way that there is focus on the information that is available such as by using a quotations or someone prominent illustrating it through interview for instance.
Take this recent headlines on CNBC for instance – the market has been pouring rain over the past couple of weeks and the media took advantage by having someone interviewed on his opinion about the possibility of a long bear market winter coming into the market.
He may be right (or wrong) but the problem with this is it is a very tightly controlled scoped interview with personal (few data information) opinion and perspectives which can result in missing components to validate the study.
Sure, the media will get its fare share of eyeball views but that is what it is meant to do.
Cherry picking with Luna was the same for the past couple of days.
People thought that they were buying at 50% discount when Luna fell from grace from $120 to $60 and they are ~99% down on their positions right now.
People thought it was extremely cheap at $10 but their positions are similarly down by ~99%. The same goes for people who continued adding at $5 or even $2.
Surely, at $1 many people thought it was the floor but it continued to go down even lower.
Even buying at $0.01, the position is currently down at 99% and even so at one further decimal point away.
It appeared that the mint supply has somewhat slowed down right now, so the falling from grace might have halted for now but that’s just cherry picking the data and for it to recover again we might just need a white knight to come in, save the entire project and confidence to roll in again.
1 thought on “Cherry Picking Your Statistics with Terra Luna as Case Study”
it’s 20,000x I believe
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