Monday, March 9, 2020

Black Monday

I want to dedicate this post today so I can look back in the future knowing we've gone through this one day episode.

The Covid has all along been a grey Swan event for a while. Yes, they are spreading globally with over 100k people infected at this point but they are not as deadly. Recovery rate has been pretty decent and there wasn't as much fear as we all thought out there in the market.

Then came the Saudi event over the weekend.

Over last Friday, Opec+ was supposed to meet and cooperate over the production cut by 1.5m barrels a day. Had the Russian agreed, we probably had a field day today for the O&G sector. What happened next was something that came out surprising.

Not only did the Russian decided not to agree, but it enrages the Saudi's wrath that the Saudi decides to play the game at the world's hands.

As we all know, Saudi has the lowest costs per barrel as compared to the other countries out there. This table is appended in 2016 so we are likely seeing even higher average costs for all the other countries except middle East.

This is a Black Swan event.


The market went on a relentless drop in the early morning when market was opened and it exarcebated badly in late afternoon.

STI dropped by a massive - 170 points at the end and this is something remarkable we've never seen happened before in the STI, ever!

My portfolio bleeds down by $12k movement today, but I'm sure everyone else is bleeding like I am so it's not a really big deal.



I managed to do some cleaning by divesting one counter and adding two new companies at such a good valuation that I was pretty happy at the end of the day.

It is not often you get to buy companies at this sort of valuation so why waste a good fall today.

I knew everyone is waiting and probably just waiting for it to go lower and you can be sure it is the hardest ever decision on whether to step in one foot in the fire.

My strategy is more lucid and I am planning to move and rotate around whenever I get the chance to do so. Remember that even in bad months we get rebounds along the way so we are likely to see volatility and opportunities to exit along the way. It is not a one way down in most time.

But yet the most important thing as I look at my current portfolio bleeding, I saw my average price at all the companies I bought and I knew for just as long as I could hold those until this is blown over, this will give me not just decent but very very good return. I could possibly even double my networth if I'm really lucky that this whole thing is blown over which hopefully if not this year then the next.

We've done the hard homework prior to the crash, now it's simply putting in the action where the mouth is.




20 comments:

  1. Able to share what counters u entered today?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies


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  2. Cut loss on MTQ or not?

    ReplyDelete
  3. My portfolio is bleeding like shit too
    But I jumped into the mkt & bought a little
    Wish there's good return afterwards

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi B,

    Do you think the thesis still holds for MTQ as this juncture ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Verseun

      Mtq is in a downstream channel so while they will be impacted the impact will not be felt as much as the upstream. Having said that, the surprise oil move will impact the whole industry as a whole.

      Delete
    2. Are you still vested in RDS?
      Considering it plunged an additional 30% from the start of Monday?
      Why not US oil counters if ure into oil play? Considering trump will def. have to do something about the market for his re-election?

      Cheers!

      Delete
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  6. uncle168,

    lky wants us to join him as the government refuse to grant him his death wish to tear down 38 Oxley Road

    hsk almost joined him when he mentioned how much he missed lky

    i think this time 23 March 2020, 5th year death anniversary those who claim they miss lky would join him

    once 38 Oxley Road is torn down everything will go back to normal

    keekeekee

    ReplyDelete
  7. uncle168,

    knn u tell people buy mtq then u sell & buy sinopec & rds

    do you know that people can sue you if they took your advice and lost money

    https://www.mas.gov.sg/-/media/MAS/Regulations-and-Financial-Stability/Regulations-Guidance-and-Licensing/Financial-Advisers/Guidelines/Guidelines-on-Provision-of-Financial-Advisory-Service-10-July-2019.pdf

    that is why motley fool has closed down

    you better get a license or lose this blog

    same advice for dividend warrior

    keekeekee

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You are in some serious shit of needing some help man. God bless you man.

      Delete
  8. uncle168,

    little boy read my blog:

    https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/money-mind-210/sti-collapse-towards-1-444-has-begun-4764629.html

    u r good boy so i warn u because your fellow bloggers bo chap u as u r competitor to them

    keekeekee

    ReplyDelete
  9. uncle168,

    u should block anonymous comments like dividend warrior so u only get good comments

    yes health is wealth

    money is quite useless without good health

    keekeekee

    ReplyDelete
  10. uncle168,

    one of my epic quotes:

    "you will never be able to time a rebound or a gap down consistently via timing your trade

    you will end up losing money shorting a bear market when it retrace

    you will end up losing money longing a rebound when it continue its gap down

    the correct strategy is to do nothing as the bear market pans out as more and more companies starts to lose money and default on their mountain of debts forcing them to foreclose their property portfolio creating a massive oversupply of empty football fields

    a vicious cycle of negative equity and foreclosure will wake up the bulls that stock price can rise but it can also plunge and you can lose all your money buying stocks or reits chasing yields that is actually your own money

    keekeekee"

    https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/87659141-post60.html

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  12. uncle168,

    excited bor?

    1st time voting as stinkie

    keekeekee

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  14. Hi B

    You may be interested in the Bill Brewster post on why he sold airline stocks, despite him being a cheerleader two week ago:
    https://sullimarcapital.group/2020/03/16/no-answers/

    In fact, on March 4th (only 12 days ago), I said we would hold airlines through this draw down. What changed?

    On March 7th, I received a transcript of a discussion that opened my eyes to what was about to happen. If that transcript was even remotely accurate I determined airlines were about to have a liquidity crisis. Yes, the balance sheets are strong, but, in the short term, so is the cash burn. The potential duration of the cash burn is “what’s different this time.” Compounding the problem was the US policy response as of a week ago.

    Fast forward to March 14th and The White House mentioned governmental assistance for the airlines, cruises, and hospitality industry. Therefore, I feel somewhat validated in my conclusion. The terms of any bailouts are not being discussed so it’s too hard to handicap how impaired the equity will be (if at all).

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