Wednesday, February 26, 2020

Just Further Thoughts On the Current Market Situation

Just wanted to do a quick run on the process thoughts and plans I have last night which came up to my mind.

The Covid-19 situation, what seemed to be just an Asia thing, has suddenly started to impact the Middle East and European continents to greater impact. Given the longer incubation period than Sars, this looks like it will likely double the time it takes on the Sars situation at least.

The Covid-19 started as an isolation temporary incident, just like any outbreak we've seen. Yes, we're likely seeing drastic impact to 1 or 2 quarters but it won't likely dent the overall capabilities of companies, at least those that has a strong pillar of balance sheet behind them.

This will look just like another phase of turbulence for them, and it is likely to pass than not. As investors, our job is to identify them and take this opportunity to get onboard with them because we want to sail together when the good time comes back.

Now, most of us didn't start the year with 100% cash in our portfolio.

If you do, then you're either a genius or you've been lagging the overall market for a long time by hoarding too much low yield assets.

Two extremes at the very end.



For the most of us, we've continued to hold on to whatever strong moat companies we already have in our portfolio and we are likely to hold them through this storm. That means just getting by this turbulence period and hope things are better so it can revert back to the valuation or share price before the whole Covid-19 started.

The opportunity lies for those investors holding cash or warchest as some would have liked to describe.

Since these investors have technically lose out in all other years by holding in to these cash yielding them very low returns, they would have to increase their conviction by picking the higher beta companies.

This means companies that are heavily impacted by the Covid-19 situation in the aviation, hospitality or retail sectors that has retreated heavily since the start of the year.

The idea is to convert them into opportunities and then sell them back when coasts are clearer and revert back those positions into cash.

You certainly don't want to be left with little or no positions in your portfolio when the coasts are clear when and not if they will come.

Thanks for reading.


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15 comments:

  1. For the passive investor who simply has a 60:40 portfolio (or whatever ratio suitable to his risk tolerance & time frame) in index funds or ETFs, just need to do rebalancing once a year & forget about the rest.

    If his timetable for rebalancing is anywhere within the next 4 months, it'll likely be selling some Treasuries / govt bonds ETFs (which have gone up) and buying some equities ETFs.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yea good point. The rebalancing should tilt towards more treasuries at this point so the rebalancing is a good gauge when to be going for more equity

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  2. What do you think about the Wharf Reic now that the price has hit its lowest?

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    Replies
    1. Hi Dan

      Wharf Reic is a bit tricky now due to the privatization of Wharf by Wheelock which they are issuing dividend in specie at a premium.

      It's going to change the valuation and impact and strategy moving forward is still uncertain for now.

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