Friday, February 21, 2020

Feb 2020 - Portfolio & Transaction Updates

No.
 Counters
No. of Shares
Market Price (SGD)
Total Value (SGD) based on market price
Allocation %
1.
MTQ
150,000
0.31
     46,500.00
34.0%
2.
Powermatic Data
  18,000
2.60
     46,800.00
34.0%
3.
Ho Bee Land
       300
2.31
          693.00
1.0%
4.
Warchest
  
     41,000.00
31.0%
Total



   134,993.00
100%

February month has been an excellent month for the portfolio.



I sold off my Top Glove towards the end of January at almost the peak at $2.51 and then used that funds to board on the MTQ train, which has also done pretty well this month.

For those of you who missed my analysis on MTQ, you can find them at this link here and I have also used this opportunity to talk to their management which I have updated the information on the article. I was pleasantly pleased that the management took notice of my articles and are more than willing to share more about their business and future guidance, which I think they are at the start of a U-turn upwards, especially after disposing their more difficult business segments. They can finally start to focus on what they do best which is on the oilfield engineering downstream segments.

I have mixed feeling about divesting my position for Straco because I know they are a company that can easily come back once this whole episode of the virus is blown over. I do think their current valuation is unwarranted but there may be some better opportunities in the short term which I may conserve my cash for meanwhile. Nevertheless, I might consider re-entering my position for Straco if I cannot find a better deal out there (which is pretty unlikely if this virus persists).

In Feb, I have also taken the opportunity to load another potential catalyst company on Powermatic Data. This is a company which has done really well over the years since after the consolidation a few years ago. My interests in the company start when they decide to do a capital structure review announcement a couple of months ago on their investment property, which I believe the market has not yet priced into the current share price.

For the purpose of stripping out the value, their current cash (no debt) share is at $0.91, while the investment properties is valued at $131m, which translates to about $0.90/share. What this means is that stripping out the cash and investment properties, the business is only valued at $0.79, which translates into a PER of about 2.3x.

This has all along been the story so far for Powermatic for value investors so no real surprise of the value there but the real catalyst still lies in the capital structure which is my main interest and I think things could look really good if they manage to do a capital reduction out of that capital structure reorganization there. At my bear case, I am hoping the share price remains where they are today if the capital structure review fails.

So that is about all the updates for the month of February so far for me.

I started off the year with a portfolio of $102k, and I managed to close February off at about $134k, which means my portfolio has gained about 30% returns so far for me. During the period, I have no capital injection because I was out of job during the period.

This week, I have also started my new job which kept me really busy during the week. With such a busy schedule, I did not monitor too much on the market but kept a hard interests at looking at the market and following up on the news once a day.

There are some positions which keep me interests already such as the usual culprit of CDG, DFI, HKLand and some other positions which I previously mentioned for HK Stocks. These are really just trading positions because these companies are in all sort of troubles and they have no real catalyst for me to hold for longer term. For some reason, these positions work better for me as a trading than core position.

From the way the stock market closes today, and it appears more outbreak lurking around Korea, Japan and Iran, it does look seem that the worst is probably not yet over and we might be expecting a longer drag to this impact than what was originally imagined.

With that, stay healthy, careful, nimble and always care for safety first.

Thanks for reading.


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20 comments:

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  2. Hello Brian, these days you hardly update your 'recent transactions'. Didn't know you invested into MTQ and Powermatic Data. Good upside run on MTQ! :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hello, yeah these days am quite lazy to keep the full track of things, and then having to further update them in sequence haha. Hope these two positions will bear some fruits.

      Delete
  3. What's with the 300 shares of ho bee land?

    ReplyDelete
  4. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Would the warrants have any dilutive impact on the company ?

    MTQ has 15.4m of warrants (current o/s shares: 216.3m). This would lead to a dilution of around 7% assuming full conversion.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Verseun

      Yes it will, assuming full conversion, it will dilute the eps of the company.

      Delete
    2. But still on a P/E basis with the conversion. MTQ is still considered rather cheap.

      Is there any reason why you did not use EV /EBITDA metrics instead. Since MTQ has some debt.

      Also management did not mention on how they would use the A5mil and A2mil cash from the disposal. But I suppose its for working capital purposes and to pay off debt. Most companies would at least make a mention at the use of proceeds. But this was glanced through and only share proceeds were mentioned

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  7. Hi, have you sold off ur Straco stock?

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