Wednesday, January 22, 2020

Jan 2020 - Portfolio & Transaction Updates

No.
 Counters
No. of Shares
Market Price (SGD)
Total Value (SGD) based on market price
Allocation %
1.
Top Glove
  50,000
1.71
     85,500.00
48.0%
2.
Straco
100,000
0.65
     65,000.00
37.0%
3.
Comfortdelgro
    8,000
2.21
     17,680.00
10.0%
4.
Ho Bee Land
       300
2.36
          700.00
1.0%
5.
Warchest
  
       8,000.00
6.0%
Total



   176,880.00
100%






Less:
CFD Leverage @ 2.8%


   (70,000.00)

Total



   106,880.00
100%

It's the first reporting season of the new year and we are in the midst of an earning season so there's plenty of reporting and monitoring to do for the companies.

Just to recap on my last Dec portfolio updates which you can view it Here, I was down with only two shares on hand which means it was relatively easy when it comes to monitoring. Plus, it doesn't help the fact that Straco's management does not provide more clarity and updates as we await new information on the flyer.



This month, I've added two more purchases.

The first is a case for Comfortdelgro, which I managed to add a little at $2.21. This company remained trading in range over the past couple of years as we are likely to see more margins pressure this year from their rail business which is likely to taper.

Still, I think trading at a PER of 16x with 4.7% yield is a fair price to pay and wait, whilst it continues embarking on their growth plans on further acquisitions.

On the outbreak of the Wuhan flu crisis, I have also taken a position at Top Glove at an average of $1.72 per share. Coming back of a disappointing quarterly results, I think this year they could do better coming off a lower base. Outlook might also be revised if this outbreak goes viral which likely push demand for gloves and rubber higher for FY2020.

Volume for the past 2 days have also spiked, which sees more players pushing for what likely to be a speculative play.

Since I've taken on this position on a Cfd, I'm likely to hold this for short rather than long term.

The portfolio is still awaiting for a couple of turnaround play so I am not in the rush to overly take a position since we are only in the first month of the new year.

Warchest is also low so I'm looking to recycle only when the opportunity arises.

I'll be flying off during the next couple of days to spend time back with my parents for the festive cny so I think we'll see some break in between the articles.

Meanwhile, have a good cny break, take plenty of precaution and all the best in the rat year ahead!

Thanks for reading.


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23 comments:

  1. Hi B

    Good call on Top glove. I think it comes as accumulated knowledge and time spent analysing the company and macro events that led to the snap call.

    Congratulations on the gains. Fortune favors the bold.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Verseun

      Top Glove was added because I was looking for an inverse play to balance my position for Straco for a hedging play on this Wuhan virus.

      Under normal circumstances I am unlikely to be adding them to my portfolio so this is a bit more on the speculative hedging side.

      Delete
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  2. uncle168,

    his straco and cdg losses cancel out his top glove gains

    he used to analysis stocks on value investing and buy for the long haul

    now he is just throwing darts

    like he short dbs and starhub missed now long top glove hit

    hiv drugs can cure wuhan virus and singapore government quite good in handling the situation in tracing and isolating suspect case

    the budget should have some cushion like worker levy cuts and income tax rebates

    once established hiv drugs is effective cure and development of vaccine should be back to normal around 3 months

    keekeekee

    ReplyDelete
  3. Yes I tend to agree with the poster above. His trades has become more speculative and short term. Maybe this is hindsight but he sold too many of his golden gooses and boarded some junks. I think he may need to review his trading principles and make it more consistent. Anyway just my two cents and apologies if it offended. Not my intentions.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Anonymous

      Thanks for your feedback.

      I disagree with you because first, what you classified as junks may not be in reality. Second, with the kind of strategy I have placed (despite the losses), I am still turning in 17% return in 2019 so I'm not too sure what's the real issue here.

      Top Glove was also added as part of a hedging strategy since I have Straco and I know it would get badly impacted by this black Swan event hence a purposeful decision to get a counter that can perform the inverse but still profit from an overall position.

      I guess let's just stick and respect each of our strategies would have been better?

      Delete
    2. And oh one more thing, please leave your name so I know who I am talking to and we can exchange strategies or share yours if you have it with you :)

      Delete
    3. 17% in 2019?
      I think u need to stop this.

      After some time, readers know that your self described returns are all fake.
      There have been some other comments trying to be polite, asking how you get these numbers.
      After monitoring your picks for some time, I think anyone can tell.

      Delete
    4. Haha, don't get so upset.

      All my transactions are tracked by stocks.cafe so I don't really compute them myself. But that's OK, I really don't have anything to proof to anyone and anyone don't have to believe me in everything.

      And you're still a keyboard anonymous after all this convo!

      Delete
  4. uncle168,

    atraco close shop liao

    top glove if u didn't notice is raising bonds to repay its mountain of debt

    these rubber glove companies are suffering from huge over capacity even small players like riverstone can make a billion gloves

    keekeekee

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hi Brian,

    Thank you for your sharing. Winning and losing in the stock market is part and parcel of life. But I have always admired your transparency in sharing your trading adventure. Unfortunately, there are people who like to throw stones at your misfortune. Who don't make mistakes in their investments? Please keep on sharing.

    Regards,
    Gerald
    https://sgwealthbuilder.com

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Gerald

      Thanks for your comment.

      Indeed losing stock position is always will be a part of your portfolio sizing, in fact across the 2nd half of 2019 I have lost quite a bit in DBS mainly and also Straco earlier this year but oh well its part parcel of life which you cannot predict.

      Delete
  6. Hi B,

    Thank you for your reply. As a fellow blogger, I have been following your blog for a long time. I can't help but agree with some of the comments from the readers. Hope you are not offended but your articles seem to suggest that you have deviated from your investment principles. In the past, I enjoy reading your articles on value investing but nowadays your articles are more about your speculative trades and shorting adventure. Quite disappointed in the massive transformation in you. What happened along the way? You seemed to have lost your way big time. Hope to see the old B back soon.

    Regards,
    Gerald
    https://sgwealthbuilder.com

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Gerald

      Yes that's okay.

      My approach have changed over the years and I have been finding ways to evolve. I have always believed in the fundamentals but never restrict my position based on fundamentals itself, neither have I ever called myself a value investor once in my 10 years of investing. If you've been following my blog, my position tends to be short term in nature but I do exercise a very strict criteria of entering, exiting, stop loss and research.

      At the end of the day, I've got to protect what works best for me at the end of the day, whether it is long term investing or through trading, and for as long as my portfolio keeps on increasing (over the longer term the "n" should be more reliable) it really doesn't matter much to me.

      Delete
    2. Hi B,

      Thanks for the sharing. Agree with you that we must be adaptable and adjust our investment strategies according to situations. Hope you are not offended b my remarks. I have always admired your work and look forward to more sharing from you. A prosperous and happy new year!

      Regards,
      Gerald
      https://sgwealthbuilder.com

      Delete
    3. Hi Gerald

      Not at all.

      I've been an admirer of your work over the years too because of your articles and sharing. Hope you'd continue doing that :)

      Delete
  7. Congrats on your top glove... hope that u were able to sell it near 2.50 to make $40,000 profit !!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Wayne

      Thanks, I managed to sell all luckily at $2.51, but suffered quite a bit for Straco.

      Delete
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  9. Hi B,

    I wish you all the best in your investment. Though our investment strategies are different, it is to each of our own. I adopt the "buy and remain invested for the dividend" approach.

    Good Luck.

    WTK

    ReplyDelete
  10. Hi B, how is it you could get CFD for Top Glove but I was told its not available on CFD?

    ReplyDelete
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