Wednesday, November 6, 2019

Nov 19 - Portfolio & Networth Update

No. of Shares
Market Price (SGD)
Total Value (SGD) based on market price
Allocation %
Ho Bee Land



We are 2 months away from closing the year so I thought I'll update this early.

The portfolio has never looked "cleaner" than what it is today but I guess given so many involvement I am in the second half of the year with all the things going on and the recent few bad trades (see below), I am tempted to regroup going into 2020.

Shorts Position Gone Wrong

It has been a very challenging month in terms of the market because the sentiments on the ground have been very bullish due to the impending signing of the Phase 1 deal which drives the market higher everyday.

One of the position was Starhub, which I managed to cut loss at $1.38, which translates into 3 cents loss / share. With 120,000 shares position, this translates to about $3.6k loss in absolute return, which I think is okay given that Starhub does indeed reports a much better Q3 results than most people expected. In terms of FCF, they have also increased to $100m from the previous quarter of $75m due to the stabilizing topline so if this continues, I just suspect they might be able to continue paying their 9 cents / share dividends. 

Having said that, the impending high capex they have to fork out for the 4G spectrum and 5G bids have not been addressed, so that is still a question mark which investors have to concern moving forward.

The other short position I had was DBS, which I managed to also cut loss this morning at $26.31 (after what I think as they broke through the $26.30 resistance), which translates into $1.27 loss / share. With 12,000 shares position, this translates to about $15.2k loss in absolute return.

This feels a bit more stink not because of the loss that I incurred but because I think the thesis is still right (looking at both UOB and OCBC results) but the market sentiments have been growing more positively due to bullish market sentiments, so it's a matter of entering at a wrong timing. 

I believe banks will continue to have a tough earnings guidance (OCBC and UOB have guided for lower NIMs and low loan growth) in 2020, and could be a double whammy should the market turns.

I think this is a good lesson for me (and for everyone else) given how the market can continue to remain irrational more than you can remain solvent, or as the saying goes. 

Given the amount of warchest I have on hand, I could have hold onto it further but I decide to regroup after what has been a very challenging second half of the year for me in terms of the stock returns. I also wanted to maintain a strict discipline in cutting things that have not gone the right way.

Clearing Other Positions

I also cleared out my position for HK Land and divested it at $5.60 which is just about the break-even when I had it earlier this year. While I still continue to believe in the company, I wanted more warchest at this point in time given the much reduce networth I have in my portfolio.

I have also divested my small position in Far East Hospitality Trust at 72.5 cents which I don't have a big stake in the first place.

Other Trades During The Month

The one positive outcome came from a contra trade made this month when Keppel announcement was announced and I managed to contra for SMM for a few thousands profit in return.

This was more of itchy hands trade than anything but I wouldn't want to hold it for longer, though I still feel SCI provides a compelling case nearer to the Keppel decision.

Do I Fly With Eagle?

I was tempted to board the boat with a few of my other peers in the chatgroup for Eagle but was fortunate not to board as Eagle continued to sink over the next couple of days.

While the yield looks tempting for a Reit, even in the face of a declining hotel business fundamentals and a write-off of their QM, I am still skeptical of whether the sponsor would raise any funds from divesting more assets which may become dilutive to shareholders.

I think the faster they clear this up with investors, the clearer the picture is which will be good for both parties.

Paid-Up Our Second Home

This month, we also managed to pay up our home which I blogged about it earlier here , which costs $1.41m in value and also the 3% stamp duty, which translates into $42k hence the big reduction in our networth report.

At least with this one settled and dusted, there is finally something to look forward to in 2020.

Final Thoughts

This has been a rough month and in particular the second half of this year has been pretty bad for me, especially since the good performance of Vicom I had earlier in the first half of the year.

Chances are I'll likely sit back and hold off any sort of activities until the end of the year and then try to come back stronger with these lessons learned so that I (all of us) could have a better results in 2020.

Meanwhile, please continue to stay vigilant in this market and do your due diligence :)

Thanks for reading.

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  1. uncle168,

    you only have S$100K left?

    you got family leh

    my barber buy dbs when it plunge to S$7 during the lehman crisis

    she know nuts about stocks but has never lost money as she just buy and forgets about it

    she makes financial gurus looks like idiots

    dbs would eventually crash as the GLCs recent strategy of merger to confuse the market thru financial engineering via the balance sheet transfer would be unable to generate paper profits as the global economy grin to a halt with the never ending trade wars and countries turning inwards protecting its own exports with tariffs



    1. Hi Uncle 168

      So what is your point? :)


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  2. uncle168,

    wait for crisis then buy

    you see 8ih tell people value investing also anyhow buy now share price drop to nothing

    the 2019 weworks crisis is cuming

    it will cause a deep global depression


  3. Bro every trader investor will have a bad day, my bad days just over nicely sit in profits for my portfolio. U can do it perserve, remember Capricorn effect from October to January will be good months for stock markets hence why President trump and Xi choose to sign phase 1 trade deal at such timing is going to grease the markets higher into 2020

    1. Hi Clarence

      Thanks for the encouragement and advice, appreciate it.

  4. B,

    You forgot 1 line item in your portfolio table, which is investment condo X 1 unit @ $1.4M.

    When are you renting it out for monthly dividends?

    1. Hi

      Haha I think I'll exclude that in the update as the valuation is not always available in the market.

      We are currently renting out our first home, so we'd likely be moving to this recently bought ones.

  5. ouch on DBS, and i suffered the burn on Eagle so good move not to be tempted!!
    a big shift in portfolio this month, meaning u took the proceeds from property #1 refinancing to fully settle property #2 right?

    Just curious what is the rationale since ur property is already de-coupled and will not suffer any ABSD from property #2 purchase. isnt the transfer of money a left-pocket-to-right-pocket situation (transferring the debt from ppty #2 to ppty #1), net net could be about the same?

    just really curious as i also hold 2 property but employ a different strategy.

    loyal reader - J

    1. Hi J

      Yeah you are right, it's a left and right pocket. The reason for doing this is because my wife is not working, so she's unlikely to be able to secure the loan. So I have to extend the loan from my name and have to pay in her name.

      At the end of the day, it is still the net equity level (asset value less liabilities) that matters.

  6. How come you pay for your condo in cash in full upfront? Instead of investing that money and taking a housing loan at a lower rate.

    1. Hi

      You may want to read my previous post which address this.

    2. Ah ok cash-out financing, got it, thanks for replying!

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  8. Hi B,

    Mind sharing your views on the rights offering for MapleTree Commercial REIT? With the recent interest rate cut by Fed (3rd time in 2019) what are your views on this one?

    Seeing that the govt announced on the GSW development plans moving forward do u think there's more room for growth on this one?

    Missed those days when the price was at $1.4 - $1.5ish.

    Long-time reader,

  9. Always enjoy reading your post.
    For me I am the buy and hold type, so far my portfolio consists of only ST engineering (50 lots) and capitaland (50 lots). Having been holding for the past 6 years and enjoying the dividend and capital gain.
    What is your take on this 2 counters?

  10., really long did you take to own such a big sum of money. Is it via investing or employment income?

  11., really long did you take to own such a big sum of money. Is it via investing or employment income?

  12. Hi Blogger,

    A lot of people post about their wins but not their losses.

  13. Hi, may i know your rationale for selling Far East Hospitality Trust?

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