Wednesday, November 6, 2019

Nov 19 - Portfolio & Networth Update


No.
 Counters
No. of Shares
Market Price (SGD)
Total Value (SGD) based on market price
Allocation %
1.
Ho Bee Land
       300
2.33
             700.00
1.00%
2.
Warchest
  

      100,000.00
99.00%
Total



      100,700.00
100%

We are 2 months away from closing the year so I thought I'll update this early.

The portfolio has never looked "cleaner" than what it is today but I guess given so many involvement I am in the second half of the year with all the things going on and the recent few bad trades (see below), I am tempted to regroup going into 2020.



Shorts Position Gone Wrong


It has been a very challenging month in terms of the market because the sentiments on the ground have been very bullish due to the impending signing of the Phase 1 deal which drives the market higher everyday.

One of the position was Starhub, which I managed to cut loss at $1.38, which translates into 3 cents loss / share. With 120,000 shares position, this translates to about $3.6k loss in absolute return, which I think is okay given that Starhub does indeed reports a much better Q3 results than most people expected. In terms of FCF, they have also increased to $100m from the previous quarter of $75m due to the stabilizing topline so if this continues, I just suspect they might be able to continue paying their 9 cents / share dividends. 

Having said that, the impending high capex they have to fork out for the 4G spectrum and 5G bids have not been addressed, so that is still a question mark which investors have to concern moving forward.

The other short position I had was DBS, which I managed to also cut loss this morning at $26.31 (after what I think as they broke through the $26.30 resistance), which translates into $1.27 loss / share. With 12,000 shares position, this translates to about $15.2k loss in absolute return.

This feels a bit more stink not because of the loss that I incurred but because I think the thesis is still right (looking at both UOB and OCBC results) but the market sentiments have been growing more positively due to bullish market sentiments, so it's a matter of entering at a wrong timing. 

I believe banks will continue to have a tough earnings guidance (OCBC and UOB have guided for lower NIMs and low loan growth) in 2020, and could be a double whammy should the market turns.

I think this is a good lesson for me (and for everyone else) given how the market can continue to remain irrational more than you can remain solvent, or as the saying goes. 

Given the amount of warchest I have on hand, I could have hold onto it further but I decide to regroup after what has been a very challenging second half of the year for me in terms of the stock returns. I also wanted to maintain a strict discipline in cutting things that have not gone the right way.

Clearing Other Positions

I also cleared out my position for HK Land and divested it at $5.60 which is just about the break-even when I had it earlier this year. While I still continue to believe in the company, I wanted more warchest at this point in time given the much reduce networth I have in my portfolio.

I have also divested my small position in Far East Hospitality Trust at 72.5 cents which I don't have a big stake in the first place.

Other Trades During The Month

The one positive outcome came from a contra trade made this month when Keppel announcement was announced and I managed to contra for SMM for a few thousands profit in return.

This was more of itchy hands trade than anything but I wouldn't want to hold it for longer, though I still feel SCI provides a compelling case nearer to the Keppel decision.

Do I Fly With Eagle?

I was tempted to board the boat with a few of my other peers in the chatgroup for Eagle but was fortunate not to board as Eagle continued to sink over the next couple of days.

While the yield looks tempting for a Reit, even in the face of a declining hotel business fundamentals and a write-off of their QM, I am still skeptical of whether the sponsor would raise any funds from divesting more assets which may become dilutive to shareholders.

I think the faster they clear this up with investors, the clearer the picture is which will be good for both parties.

Paid-Up Our Second Home


This month, we also managed to pay up our home which I blogged about it earlier here , which costs $1.41m in value and also the 3% stamp duty, which translates into $42k hence the big reduction in our networth report.

At least with this one settled and dusted, there is finally something to look forward to in 2020.

Final Thoughts


This has been a rough month and in particular the second half of this year has been pretty bad for me, especially since the good performance of Vicom I had earlier in the first half of the year.

Chances are I'll likely sit back and hold off any sort of activities until the end of the year and then try to come back stronger with these lessons learned so that I (all of us) could have a better results in 2020.

Meanwhile, please continue to stay vigilant in this market and do your due diligence :)

Thanks for reading.

If you like our articles, you may follow our Facebook Page here

28 comments:

  1. uncle168,

    you only have S$100K left?

    you got family leh

    my barber buy dbs when it plunge to S$7 during the lehman crisis

    she know nuts about stocks but has never lost money as she just buy and forgets about it

    she makes financial gurus looks like idiots

    dbs would eventually crash as the GLCs recent strategy of merger to confuse the market thru financial engineering via the balance sheet transfer would be unable to generate paper profits as the global economy grin to a halt with the never ending trade wars and countries turning inwards protecting its own exports with tariffs

    keekeekee

    keekeekee

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Uncle 168

      So what is your point? :)

      Delete
    2. INTERNET SCAM ALERT‼️

      The internet today is full of SCAM ADS, mostly in comments of various sites and blogs. A large number of individuals have been victims of scam and lost of money to SCAMMERS. Most of the common scam are
      🔻BANK LOAN SCAM. 🔻BINARY OPTIONS SCAM.
      🔻BINARY AUCTION SCAM. 🔻HACKING SCAM. and lost more......

      But here is a good news to everyone who has been a victim of INTERNET SCAM❗️
      You can get your money back from your scammer, Authorities will not been involve just the genius of our skill.

      WHO ARE WE⁉️
      We are PLUGGERS! A group of talented Hackers specializing to help individuals steal back thier money from INTERNET SCAMMERS. We did a research of money been ripped away from people and it can to a speculation of more than USD $3billion annually. This doesn’t seem right to us, so we formed this group mainly to help individuals get back thier money.

      HOW DO WE OPERATE⁉️
      We first of all study the scammer brought to us your o “PLUG” by hacking this person device(phone or computer) to get information of How, Where, this person keeps the funds he steals from people, and we work on a strategy to get you back your money. With no way to trace the steal to you and back to us, this person has no way to build a case and that way you are safe from Authorities.

      Contacting us is simple, just give us a message through the email below.
      Email-: globalpluggers@gmail.com

      If you a victim of internet scam or you know someone who is, make contact to us immediately. You are 💯 % safe to contact us, our email is very secure.









      Delete
  2. uncle168,

    wait for crisis then buy

    you see 8ih tell people value investing also anyhow buy now share price drop to nothing

    the 2019 weworks crisis is cuming

    it will cause a deep global depression

    keekeekee

    ReplyDelete
  3. Bro every trader investor will have a bad day, my bad days just over nicely sit in profits for my portfolio. U can do it perserve, remember Capricorn effect from October to January will be good months for stock markets hence why President trump and Xi choose to sign phase 1 trade deal at such timing is going to grease the markets higher into 2020

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Clarence

      Thanks for the encouragement and advice, appreciate it.

      Delete
  4. B,

    You forgot 1 line item in your portfolio table, which is investment condo X 1 unit @ $1.4M.

    When are you renting it out for monthly dividends?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi

      Haha I think I'll exclude that in the update as the valuation is not always available in the market.

      We are currently renting out our first home, so we'd likely be moving to this recently bought ones.

      Delete
  5. ouch on DBS, and i suffered the burn on Eagle so good move not to be tempted!!
    a big shift in portfolio this month, meaning u took the proceeds from property #1 refinancing to fully settle property #2 right?

    Just curious what is the rationale since ur property is already de-coupled and will not suffer any ABSD from property #2 purchase. isnt the transfer of money a left-pocket-to-right-pocket situation (transferring the debt from ppty #2 to ppty #1), net net could be about the same?

    just really curious as i also hold 2 property but employ a different strategy.

    loyal reader - J

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi J

      Yeah you are right, it's a left and right pocket. The reason for doing this is because my wife is not working, so she's unlikely to be able to secure the loan. So I have to extend the loan from my name and have to pay in her name.

      At the end of the day, it is still the net equity level (asset value less liabilities) that matters.

      Delete
  6. How come you pay for your condo in cash in full upfront? Instead of investing that money and taking a housing loan at a lower rate.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi

      You may want to read my previous post which address this.

      Delete
    2. Ah ok cash-out financing, got it, thanks for replying!

      Delete
  7. You at Viet Nam and iPhone 11 Accidents happen. If your screen gets cracked, we can help. Read More or huydungmobile.com

    ReplyDelete
  8. Hi B,

    Mind sharing your views on the rights offering for MapleTree Commercial REIT? With the recent interest rate cut by Fed (3rd time in 2019) what are your views on this one?

    Seeing that the govt announced on the GSW development plans moving forward do u think there's more room for growth on this one?

    Missed those days when the price was at $1.4 - $1.5ish.

    Long-time reader,
    Q

    ReplyDelete
  9. Always enjoy reading your post.
    For me I am the buy and hold type, so far my portfolio consists of only ST engineering (50 lots) and capitaland (50 lots). Having been holding for the past 6 years and enjoying the dividend and capital gain.
    What is your take on this 2 counters?

    ReplyDelete
  10. 1.4mil...wow, really inspiring...how long did you take to own such a big sum of money. Is it via investing or employment income?

    ReplyDelete
  11. 1.4mil...wow, really inspiring...how long did you take to own such a big sum of money. Is it via investing or employment income?

    ReplyDelete
  12. Hi Blogger,

    A lot of people post about their wins but not their losses.
    Respect!

    ReplyDelete
  13. Hi, may i know your rationale for selling Far East Hospitality Trust?

    ReplyDelete
  14. My hobby is reading blogs and articles because I love it when I gain another useful information that can add into my brain, I just want to tell you that when I'm reading your work, for me it was a real good job! I suggest if you want direct supplier just ask me.

    ReplyDelete

  15. You certainly did it well! First off, I want to recognize your work, this was really nice! I like the style of your writings! When you have time, I want to share with you this retail market if ever you need to buy something.

    ReplyDelete
  16. LOANS AVAILABLE

    Do you need Personal, Business Cash Loan, Unsecured Loan, Get unsecured working capital ? We Have Loan Programs Tailored For any Profile apply a loan with us today to Satisfy your Business Needs.

    Operation;

    Fast and Simple Loan
    Quick Application Process
    Approvals within 24-72 Hours
    Optional Fee Loan
    Funding in less than 5 days


    LOAN SERVICES AVAILABLE INCLUDE:
    ================================
    *Personal Loans.
    *Business Loans.
    *Investments Loans.
    *Business Expansion Loans.
    *Hard Money Loans
    *Construction loans.
    *Credit Card Clearance Loan
    *Debt Consolidation Loan

    We Offers Financial Consulting To Clients, Companies Seeking Debt/Loan Financing And Seeking For Working Capital To Start A New Business Or To Expand Existing Business.

    Interested Parties, kindly contact us for additional information via

    Mail; Howardfinancialaid@yahoo.com
    Whatsapp: +1 (573) 279-4038
    Company Address: West Ave, Hawthorne, CA.

    ReplyDelete
  17. DO YOU NEED A LOAN?
    We are a financial consultants that handles international finances for any amount of banking instruments. What about finding a reputable Debt Consolidation firm that can assist you in reducing monthly installment so that you will have affordable repayment options as well as room to breathe when it comes to the end of the month and bills need to get paid? Mr Steve Wilson Loan Firm (stevewilsonloanfirm@gmail.com) is the answer. Reduce your payments to ease the strain on your monthly expenses. Feel free to engage our leased facilities as We have provided over $2 Billion in business loans to over 25, 000 business owners just like you. We use our own designated risk technology to provide you with the right business loan so you can grow your business. Our services are fast and reliable, loans are approved within 24 hours of successful application. Whatsapp:+393510675312

    * Personal loans,
    * Truck Loans
    * Car Loans
    * Real Estate Loans
    * Refinancing Loans
    * Debt consolidation loans
    * Education Loans
    * Farm Loans
    * Corporate Loans
    * Business Start-up Loans

    We offer loans from a minimum range of $5, 000 to a maximum of $500 million, STEVE WILSON LOAN FIRM Will give you loan with an affordable interest rate of 2% and loan duration of 1 to 30 years to pay back the loan (secure and unsecured). Our aim is to provide Excellent Professional Financial Services. Intermediaries/Consultants/Brokers are welcome to bring their clients and are 100% protected. In complete confidence, we will work together for the benefits of all parties involved. Do not keep your financial problems to yourself in order for you not to be debt master or financial stress up, which is why you must contact us quickly for a solution to your financial problems. It will be a great joy to us when you are financially stable
    Email us via:

    Yours Sincerely,
    Mr Steve Wilson.
    Whatsapp:+393510675312

    We are certified and offer fast and reliable services

    ReplyDelete
  18. While having a conversation with my friends, they recommend me your writings because they said that it was really nice to read, so I search your work then I was amazed because its not only nice rather it was really a tremendous job of yours! However I would like to ask if you have already a direct supplier ?
    -Jayvee

    ReplyDelete
  19. Won't it have been wiser not to fully pay your loan and leverage using a term loan for your property at 2% interests to trade or invest in a higher yield REIT for example? That would give you a positive carry right away. And if term loan interests went up, you could just sell your REIT and pay back the loan right away.

    Loan interests go up when economy is doing well hence there's a high probability you will not have problems liquidating your REITs when the need arises.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Proven to rank page # 1 for your keywords, drive traffic, lead and sales, and help grow your business. Our result-oriented seo packages are designed to keep you ahead of the chase.

    ReplyDelete

UA-57154194-1