Monday, April 29, 2019

Manulife Reit Makes An Acquisition of Centerpointe

Barely a few days after Manulife Reit announces their Q1FY19 quarterly results which I covered here, they announces an M&A for two towers of Centerpointe I & II, which is South of Virginia (about 30 minutes from Washington DC).

The acquisition of these freehold properties is at the implied cap rate of 7.55% for a Class A commercial, which makes it an easy accretive target deal for them based on their current valuation.

The purchase price is $122m, which is about a tenth of their current market cap, so they didn't really need a lot of funding to buy this. 

The properties are leased at 94% occupancy rate at a nice long WALE of 6.9 years but we already know that deals typically in the US are based on long term, then subject to annual escalation.


Management is looking to raise approximately $94m by issuing 114m unit shares private placement, so that works out to be approximately based on 81.8 cents, which is about 6% discount based on last closing price.

What is good about this deal is that they not only managed to do a yield accretive acquisition with pro-forma post acquisition at 6.21 cents (2.6% increase in DPU), but gearing will also reduce marginally from 37.6% to 36.8%. This shows you how good a deal is with a 7.55% cap rate does to a portfolio and is surely an envy to most reits managers out there.


There will be an advance distribution for existing unitholders that will be in the range of 2.03 to 2.23 cents for the past quarterly performance + the current month until book close so look out for that one.

Meanwhile, I like this deal and am looking to get back in a position with this deal should there be a knee jerk reaction off the next couple of days.

Thanks for reading.


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ARA Hospitality Trust - Preliminary Prospectus IPO

After my previous article on Eagle Hospitality Trust (EHT), this would be another prospecting on a US hospitality trust which is slated to go public upon approval of listing from MAS. 

Like EHT, ARA-HT is claiming to be the very first US pure-play hospitality to be listed in SGX. I guess we’ll have to see who has the claim of rights to say this first depending on the timeline they go public. 

I’ll try to make this a narrative comparison against EHT as much as possible, so if you have not read the previous article on EHT, I’d recommend you read them first here

Hotel’s Portfolio

The initial portfolio of ARA-HT comprises of 38 properties, which further broken down into 27 Hyatt Place Hotels and 11 Hyatt House Hotels located in the US, with a total of 4,950 hotel rooms. 

The Reit’s portfolio is valued at US$719.5 million, so that’s one-third smaller than the US$1.27b we have when comparing with EHT. 

Unlike EHT which has most of their hotels concentrated on the West coast of the region, ARA-HT has a nice balance spread across the entire US states.




Out of the 38 properties, 27 of them are Hyatt hotels, which are upscale hotels with full services catered to both business and leisure travellers both domestic and foreign tourists. 

The rest of the 11 are Hyatt houses, which are typically known as service apartment as it caters to extended stay travellers which offers more communal spaces such as kitchenette and bigger living rooms to cater for families. These are typically located in suburban and airport areas. 

Like EHT, most of the properties are freehold in nature, which is common in the US, with exception to the 2 properties. 

Hyatt Place Secaucus Meadowlands is one of them, with leasehold expiring in Jun 2071 and Hyatt Place Lakeland Center is another, with leasehold expiring in Jul 2073. 

Sponsor & Management Fees Structure 

The sponsor is a global integrated real assets fund manager, ARA Group, which manage assets over $80b across 23 countries. 

Cornerstone investors include Bank of Singapore (BOS), DBS Bank, UOB and Credit Suisse. They also include SingHaiyi’s controlling shareholders Gordon Tang and Celine Tang, and investment firm ICH Capital. 

The cornerstone tranche makes up around 25% of the total offering so this is clearly stronger than what EHT has on their cornerstone investors. 

The management fees structure is similar to what we have for EHT. The management fees structure is a base fee of 10% of the distributional income and an annual performance fee of 25% of growth in DPS over the preceding financial year. 

The distributional income should be easy to hit for as long as they keep on growing and adding properties into the portfolio but the 25% could be difficult to hit in an uprising year. Still, the fact that the nature of the lumpiness in the hospitality industry means they could have 1 very bad year as a base and the following year they could already see the “growth” in DPS.

Investment Thesis

The investment thesis is not different from what was already discussed in the EHT’s article so I am not going to repeat it too much again. 

Basically, management is optimistic about the arrivals of international tourists in the next 2 to 3 years given the weaker US dollars and demand from both domestic and international to trump over the existing supply, so they are expecting their Revenue Per Available (Revpar) rate to increase. Still, looking at the average occupancy rate over the last 10 years should give enough indication that there are rooms to maneuver for capacity play.


The one interesting thing to note here is that there are no indications for Revenue Generation Index (RGI) for the 38 properties in comparison against the average market out there. 

Since both EHT and ARA-HT are using Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) as their independent market research, it doesn’t make sense that EHT provides this information in their prospectus and ARA-HT does not. 

My guess is the RGI for the properties could be lower than 100, hence it is better not to disclose it or they are excluding it because of competitive reasons. 

Still, I find that the EHT prospectus is much more transparent on how they are providing information, including how the properties performed during the GFC in 2009, which ARA-HT did not provide. 

Capital Structure and Prospective Yield (%)

As at the listing date, ARA-HT is expected to have an aggregate leverage of 33.4%. 

In terms of gearing, ARA-HT will have a higher debt headroom to grow as compared to EHT. 

The effective interest rates on the loans, including upfront debt establishment costs is approximately at 4.6% per annum. This is not low given the environment of the US credit market over there. 

The Reit is likely to debut with an indicative yield of about 7.8%, which is rather similar to what EHT yield would be. 

Conclusion

The profile for ARA-HT is very similar to EHT, given the prospective yield they will be prospecting in the next 2 to 3 years. 

With the yield of 8% and a freehold nature of properties, one might think that all it takes is 9 years (72/8) to breakeven on your capital. It’s hard to think that they will no longer be around after 9 years. 

Still, the key to watch is the amount of capex they will spend in order to renovate and refurbish the buildings and rooms, this will play a big part in computing the properties on a roi basis. 

Again, due to nature of the industry they are operating, I’m likely to give this a miss on it’s debut and is likely to get interested only on higher grounds of safety when there are bad news priced in.

Thanks for reading.


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Thursday, April 25, 2019

Eagle Hospitality Trust - Preliminary Prospectus IPO

Eagle Hospitality Trust (EHT) is currently preparing for their public offering issuance and has lodged their prospectus with MAS.

If you want to read their prospectus in detail, you can find them here.

If successful, it will be the very first US pure-play hospitality Reit we have in SGX. 

It's interesting to see the various pure play breed choosing to list their Reit vehicle here in Singapore but I guess that's a clear sentiment of how far the Reits industry have come so far.

Hotel's Portfolio

The Reit's portfolio is valued at US$1.27b which comprises of 18 full service hotels under the various different brands - Marriot, Hilton and InterContinental brands with a total of 5,420 rooms.

Out of the 18 hotel properties, 9 of them belongs to the "Upper Upscale" hotels, 5 belongs to "Upscale" hotels and 4 belongs to "Upper Midscale" hotels.

The way I see it it's easier to think of them as 5 stars, 4.5 stars, and 4 stars hotel.

The location of the hotels are spread across mostly on the West side of the country, with only two (New Jersey and Connecticut) at the East side and two (Atlanta and Orlando) at the Central.



All except one of the properties are freehold in nature, which is common in the US, so this compares differently to the pure hospitality play we have here in Singapore which are mostly at 60 years leases.

The only non-freehold asset in the portfolio is the Queen Mary Long Beach in California which has a balance lease tenure of 63 years.

Regardless whether or not the assets are freehold, the properties still need to undergo asset enhancement (AEI) from time to time on maintenance repair work for wear and tear, so that will work out to be similar.

Since 2013, the management has spent a total of $174m capex on these properties mainly on renovation and refurbishment to improve the working function of the properties.

Sponsor & Management Fees Structure

The sponsor of EHT is Urban Commons LLC, a privately held real estate investment and development firm which managed the USHI portfolio and has a focus on the US Lodging market.

The sponsor was co-founded by Howard Wu and Taylor Woods, both prominent figures in the real estate hospitality industry.

The sponsor will own 18.3% of the stapled security with a lock-up agreement 12 months after the listing date.

The management fees structure is a base fee of 10% of the distributional income and an annual performance fee of 25% of the growth of DPS over the preceding financial year.

This seems pretty high if you compare it across the local hospitality reits.

Tax Structure

This works out a bit differently to the recent case with Manulife Reit and Keppel KBS Reit on the Section 267 hybrid tax issues.

Although the interest income received by Cayman Corp is not subject to an entity level tax in the Cayman Island, the non-inclusion is not the result of hybridity but rather a result of the Cayman Island not imposing any direct taxes under the existing legislation.

The Managers believe that the interest rate on the loan from Cayman Corp is on an arm's length basis and as such the interest payments are expected to be fully deductible for US tax purpose.

The interest payment from the US vehicle to Cayman Corp will be free from US Federal Income Tax and 30% withholding requirement.

Investment Thesis

This is an interesting independent market research that shows the demand and supply for the US lodging accommodation dynamics in the past 10 years and the next 3 years forecast.

Apart from the obvious demand drop during the GFC in 2009, the demand growth has actually exceeded the supply growth in 2013 and they are expecting the trend to widen in the next few years.

One of the reason cited is due to the rapid growth of construction and material costs, which means there are lesser incentives to build for new lodgings in the area, thus supply for hotels is expected to be moderate.

As for demand, the lower US Dollars should help to attract incoming foreign tourists into the country while domestic tourists demand is also expected to trend up with a correlation with the low unemployment rate.

Being a very much spending play, this will be dependent on the strength of the US economy in the next few years and how a recession could mitigate the drop to what we've seen back in 2009.



We often talk about Revenue per Available Room (RevPar) when we talk about hospitality industry, which is essentially the hotel's Average Daily Rate (ADR) multiplied by the factor of occupancy rate.

The management can play out a simulation of optimally balancing ADR in order to maximize the occupancy, usually a strategy taken to balance out off-peak and peak demand since the industry is so cyclical in nature.

From the graph below, you can see how strongly correlated is the RevPar to the US economy, so the question will still be how they can cope when the US economy takes a dive under at some stage.


Forecast Uptick on RevPar is dependent upon the strength of US economy expectation

Master Lease Agreement Structure

Unlike other industry like retail or commercials, most hotels, if not all are under a master lease agreement structure.

You can imagine how difficult it is to work out over 5,000 rooms of hotels if they are being structured individually under direct operated assets.

The Master Lease Agreement is catered specific to each of the 18 hotels in the portfolio and under each Master Lease Agreement , EH-Reit will receive rental payments with fixed and variable rent components.

The Fixed Rent comprises of 66% of EH-Reit total rent which provides downside protection while the Variable Rent is pegged to the Gross Operating Revenue and Gross Operating Profit which provides the organic growth.

Capital Structure and Prospective Yield (%)

As at listing, EHT is expected to have an aggregate leverage gearing of 38%.

This gives them a debt headroom of about $170m to fund their next acquisitions or AEI before they reach the statutory limit of 45%.

The weighted average debt maturity profile stands at 4.2 years and 75% of the borrowings are fixed, given the current climate of the low interest rate.

They are also expected to list at a forecasted 2019 annualized yield of around 8%, which is way higher than the hospitality reit we have here in Singapore because of the higher cap rate and more advantage tax structure in the US (via Cayman Island).

Conclusion

Overall, I think 8% is a decent yield to have for a US pure-play hospitality Reit because of the savings they can get from the US Federal Income and Withholding Taxes.

By listing it in the US, they might be subject to the Federal taxes which can add up quite a bit.

Still, I think being very cyclical and dependent on the US economy, this is a play on the macro-side. If you think the US economy will continue to do well over the next few years, then the 8% yield might provide some good returns in the next 3 to 4 years.

For me, I'm a bit on the wary side and if I wanted a US exposure, I'd rather get Manulife Reit for a commercial play at 7% yield where the lease reversion outlook are more clearer so likely I will sit this one out.

Thanks for reading.


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Starhill Global Reit - Q3FY19 Results and Thoughts

Starhill Global Reit posted their Q3FY19 results yesterday evening which saw their revenue and NPI dropped slightly by 0.9% and 1.8% YoY.

As a result, this brings a lower income available for distributional from the previous year quarter of $25.4m to $25m, a marginal drop. What is interesting is they decide to retain less for this quarter, citing lesser tax expense for this quarter and as such decided to distribute more payout to shareholders. As such, DPU has marginally increased from 1.09 cents the previous year to 1.10 cents this quarter.

Based on the current share price of 75 cents, this brings about an annualized yield of about 6%.

If we look at the details, the occupancy for the Adelaide Myer Center actually went higher this quarter, up from 84.4% to 89.9% while contributions from the rest of the office sectors are up year on year.


Still, the retail component takes up the majority of the revenue stream so it still very much depends on them.

While Ngee Ann retail continues to be fully occupied, Wisma retail continues to see changes in tenants as management continues to reshuffle the portfolio of the tenants coming in and out. Commenced leases as of 31 Mar 2019 stands at 91.7%, which most likely explains the drop in revenue and NPI this quarter, but they have committed leases up to 99% occupancy which is slated to commence in next quarter, so technically we should see better NPI in the upcoming quarters to come once they operate optimally.

There's also the Toshin review coming up in Jun 2019 later this year for the Ngee Ann retail side, so there's a prospect the agreement might come up to be better.




The Reit has also convened for a special agm on the new master lease agreement on their Malaysian properties, Starhill Gallery and Lot 10 Property which I previously blogged here.

There will be rent rebates during the AEI so there will be minimal impact during the interim.

The WALE will improve from 5.7 years and 4.2 years respectively to 9.8 years and 6.4 years.

Overall, I think performance is still soft while the Reit is in the midst of transition into many things.

Still a hold for me at current valuation while waiting for a better tomorrow to come.

Thanks for reading.


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Manulife Reit - Decent Q1FY19 Result Start To The Year

Manulife Reit announced their Q1 FY19 results this morning which saw a 27.7% increase in Net Property Income (NPI) year on year due to the 2018 acquisitions of two buildings – Penn in Washington DC and Phipps in Atlanta. 

This trickles down to bottomline DPU performance which grows slightly by 0.7% year on year to 1.51 cents (up 0.01 cent from last year same quarter).



If we compare this across quarter on quarter (Q4FY18 vs Q1FY19), NPI has actually slightly declined from US$25,491k in previous quarter to US$25,084k this quarter. There is a slight dip in the Gross Revenue by roughly the same amount, so there must be some small movement in the occupancy during the period. 

The net income is also not comparable quarter on quarter because there’s a fair value adjustment in Q4FY2019 (end year) which results in a higher fair value gain. But this does not affect the cashflow so you can see distributional income remains comparatively possible to compare. 

DPU is also lower this quarter at 1.51 cents as compared to last quarter at 1.54 cents.


If we have it annualized based on current DPU quarter, we’ll get a conservative 6.06 cents full year, which translates to about 6.9% yield at the share price of 87 cents. 

I say this conservatively because there’s a few passing rents that are below the market rate that are up for lease renewal soon. 

Apart from Michelson in Irvine, which I highlighted in my previous Manulife Management meeting (Link here) they are above the market rent, and Hyundai leases renewed back in Jan is one of them, the rest seems to be under-rented, in particular Buckhead and Midtown Peach Atlanta which has potential for positive rental reversion in the next coming lease renewal. 

This is the organic boost the management is looking to bring value to their trophy class properties.


In terms of balance sheet gearing and growth strategy, they remain in line to purchase another acquisitions which is yield accretive that can boost their overall AUM. These are likely in Dallas, Houston or Pittsburgh area where the cap rates are slightly higher, making it easier for yield accretive target. 

Management has also reiterated that interests cost will drop in the following quarter upon the refinancing of the Figueroa’s loan due to the delay in interest rate hike in the US, so the Reits should also benefit from the lower cost of borrowing. 

The management has also put up an interesting slide on the tax structure in the presentation that highlighted the tax benefit structure they have on the Barbados partnership which tax interest income on intercompany loans in Barbados and principal repayment not subjected to tax. The Reits structure is also such that they are not subjected to 30% withholding tax on the interest and principal on shareholder’s loan.




Overall, I think a decent quarter. 

I like the fact that management has also been transparent and provided a lot of operational updates information such as the upcoming AEI taken to upgrade Figuera's lobby and also their coming growth plans.

Thanks for reading.


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Monday, April 22, 2019

REITs Symposium 2019 - Your Information Guide To Most Reits You Need To Know (Updated)

This is a quick update on my previous post on the upcoming Reits Symposium which will take place on the 18th May 2019 at the Marina Bay Sands Convention Center.



Shareinvestor has updated me on the agenda details which includes the interesting panel discussion which includes several veterans from the Reits industry which I think is the more interesting part of the event as you get to hear views right from the horse's mouth themselves. 

There will be 2 panel discussions during the event itself strategically conducted in the afternoon:

Panel Discussion 1: Is Reits Still A Viable Investment In Today’s Climate? (2.10 - 2.40pm)

Cham Kum Kong (SGX) 
Kenny Loh (Trainer with Adam Khoo Learning Technologies) 
Chia Nam Toon, ARA 
Analyst 
Moderator: Nupur (REITAS) 

Panel Discussion 2: Insights to Best Performing Singapore Reits (5.00 - 5.30pm)

Anthony Ang (Sasseur Reit) 
Paul Chew (Phillip Capital) 
David Kuo (The Motley Fool) 
Calvin Neo (Nikko AM) 
Moderator: Dinesh (Dollar & Sense) 

Apart from the panel discussions, there will be other interesting sharing from Kenny Loh who will share his insight of some of the basic fundamentals of what to look out for when you are selecting Reits. 

Kenny is someone I’ve shared a stage with together before during the InvestFair back in 2017 so he’s someone who knows stuff on what he's doing.


If you have not signed up but would like to attend, the sign up link is here if you are interested.

If you use my referral link (3fs), you are able to get an additional gift with the same cost if you purchased it online directly.

Thanks for reading.

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Thursday, April 18, 2019

Apr 19 - Portfolio & Networth Update

No.
 Counters
No. of Shares
Market Price (SGD)
Total Value (SGD) based on market price
Allocation %
1.
Starhill Reit
377,000
0.755
284,635.00
30.0%
2.
Vicom
  31,300
6.79
212,527.00
23.0%
3.
Netlink Trust
236,000
0.835
197,060.00
21.0%
4.
First Reit
152,000
0.98
148,994.00
17.0%
5.
The Hour Glass
106,900
0.80
  85,520.00
  9.0%
6.
Far East Hospitality Trust
    3,000
0.67
    2,010.00
  1.0%
7.
Ho Bee Land
       300
2.53
       759.00
  1.0%
8.
Warchest
    1,000
    1,000.00
  1.0%
Total



932,505.00
100%

Greetings from JB!!

We are on a long weekend for the Easter week so I decide to bring my family to a nearby getaway to our neighbouring countries for some quick hit shopping, eating and playing time.

I was just catching up with fellow bloggers Thomas from 15 Hour Work Week and Chris from Tree of Prosperity two days ago over lunch and we talked about M Bison from the Street Fighter series and look what I've got in our Airbnb apartment! A Game Console!

Muahaha, I am surprised I still remember the special moves by all the character, including the famous M Bison
Back to the portfolio updates now.

April has been a very good month for investors because the stock market continues to go up and most if not all my portfolio has benefited from the upward trend moves.

Two of my biggest holdings, Starhill and Vicom, have been doing superbly well this year so they are the main contributor to the increase again this month.

I have divested Manulife Reit at USD 86.5 cents because I think the general valuation overall is rather fair and I wanted to reduce my over-dependence on Reits which is taking the majority of the portfolio before the divestment. Looking at how Kep KBS reported good Q1 results and outlook recently, it seems like there are still room for the US commercials to go up.

With the proceeds, I took an interesting position at The Hour Glass, which I averaged a couple of times from 70 cents all the way to 74 cents, accumulating a total of 106,900 shares in the process. This is after the big move which seen big institutional play coming in on this stock a few weeks ago.

This is a relatively short term play because YTD results have been doing really well with margins marginally up to 25% from 24% last year but revenue line also increases. My estimation for FY earnings is THG will end the year with EPS around 9.3 cents which if we give a valuation of 10x PER, the target price will be around 90+ cents. 

The share price has been up a few good times this week so my position is already up around 9% as it closes at 80 cents today, but between now and FY results I suspect there is another 10% upside.

On a smaller update, I took the DRIP for my Far East Hospitality Trust last quarter dividend which is priced decently att 63 cents. This is the reason why you see I have 3,000 shares in my portfolio. Since the amount is too small to make any action, I'll just leave it there for now.

Networth Update

The portfolio continued to do well this year, which is up again from the previous month of $900,096 to $932,505 this month (+3.4% month on month; 29.8% year on year).

This is the 16th consecutive record month that the portfolio has broken a new record high.

I am coming due soon for my sabbatical D-day in May so I've got to make every returns count now while the bull lasts.


The hardest part being involved in the bull market is the expectation as investors we are giving ourselves to be performing better than the index.

To date, the return has been satisfactory as it is performing better than the index so I can't ask for much more (i.e, if the stockscafe statistic is correct. I've had friends in my chatgroup who disputed the ES3 returns to date to be incorrect).


Next month will be interesting because we are in for a "Sell in May and Go Away" period so we don't know if the market will fall for that legendary trap but we'll have to cope and see.

Meanwhile, have a great long weekend and enjoy and celebrate the Easter this weekend.

Thanks for reading.

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Tuesday, April 16, 2019

How Do You React When Your Companies' Share Price Goes Up or Down?

I received an email from a reader (whose name I’ve concealed) who asked for my opinion on his recent purchase of stock which leads me to write this article. 

In the email, he mentioned that he initially bought OCBC at a share price of $11 with the intention of holding it long term. However, as the stock market continues to go up in the past recent weeks, he is now sitting on a decent capital gain over a short period of time, which I assume he did not initially expect, and now faced with a situation if he should sell his stock to lock in the capital gain. 

Now, for the purpose of this article, I will be focusing more on the logic behind his action rather than the company itself so I won’t be discussion any of the company’s fundamentals. 

In today’s bull market where share price continues to go up despite some scare news in the market, it is common to see people getting uneasy over their decision especially if they are holding on to winner stocks. 

This is a first world problem that many investors face in the market this year but one that can still make people go uneasy over their decision, especially after seeing some of their investment sitting on double digit gains over a short period of time. There is always a tendency to lock in the gains and make an attempt to get back in when the market prices them lower eventually. 

In case you are wondering, this happens to me (and most likely everyone too) from time to time too, so I am openly sharing how I face these psychological barriers myself and hope it will help others who are facing a similar problem. 



Timing The Market vs Time In The Market

The debate over timing the market versus time in the market has been rehearsed through countless times so I won’t bore readers too much with this one. 

The main essence of this concept is that timing the market requires you to be right two times, one with the buying and one with the selling, and it is incredibly difficult to be spot on all the time. 

Still, I am not here to tell or judge that you should not do that. 

If you have good enough justification why you wanted to time the market and believe in your ability to do that, then by all means go ahead. 

For instance, if you think the valuation of the companies you owned are stretched and that you are better off waiting for a more comfortable valuation then by all means do what you think is necessary. Over time, you will have a track record to justify if what you are doing is worth exploring. 

I’ve seen some friends in my circle group who are extremely good in timing the market so I will not write off folks who can do that. 

Profiting/Losing By Luck Or Design 

I think this is something worth exploring and expanding a bit more. 

In the email, the reader asks for advice on his next course of action that looks like this: 

1.) Sell it now or before the dividend date, which he can lock in for capital gains but forgoing the upcoming dividends 

2.) Sell it after dividends, which means the dividends will be in the pocket but not sure how much is the share price going to drop 

3.) Hold it for long term, receive and take dividends for this round first 

You can see where I have issues with his listing of the actions he wanted to take. 

If I read him correctly, he seems to struggle to come against his own conviction because he initially wanted to keep this for a long term yet he is being tempted and swayed by profits he could gain over a short period of time. 

I think the more important discovery that we can ask ourselves as investors of our own game is if we are able to deduce whether we are profiting/losing our investment by design or luck. 

By design, it means spending a worthwhile effort to understand the fundamentals of the company or designing a strategy through technical analysis of the company you are prospecting. 

Profiting By Design 

This is the best outcome of the lots. 

If you are an investor who consistently make profits because of design, then you are in a good stead because you have established a good foundation of fundamental research and temperamental adjustment that suit the needs of your investment style. 

Perhaps, the only problem that needs to try to be avoided is an issue with over-confidence, simply because winning can inflate a person’s ego over time. It is important that we keep our feet on the grounds and be humble about the prospect of making the next decision because it can impact the outcome that you choose. 

Profiting By Luck 

If you found out that you have profited on your investment but it is because of luck, then perhaps it is a good time to sit down and review the overall strategy you have on your hands. 

Like the reader who wrote to me, the important question that he should be addressing is not if he should sell now or sell later to wait for the next dividend payout. The important issues on hand is how he can turn that luck into design so he can continue profiting over the long term. 

Blessed this round, he might not be so lucky the next time round. 

It is a matter of time for a person who profited by luck to face a scenario where he will be losing at some point. 

Losing By Design 

If you buy a company with a strong conviction after doing tons of research but are still losing money at the end of the day, then the key is to be patient. 

Mr. Market can be irrational on many occasions that we don’t know why certain companies may be mispriced in a way you think it shouldn’t. If you continue to hold that belief, then it is also a good time to be adding on to your existing position to build up a larger position over time. 

Having said that, there are some companies that are value trap by design which track record will usually show some tales so it is important not to be overly biased in one aspect. 

Losing By Luck 

This is the worst of the lots. 

Losing both money and luck on all fronts should tell a conclusive story that something needs to be changed immediately. 

Take the right action now! 

Overall Thoughts 

I can understand that sometimes it is not that easy to deduce if we are profiting or losing by luck or design. 

It is usually only an aftermath on hindsight that we get to review if the previous position we took is the correct choice. 

Investing is a game of marathon and there will be plenty of chances that you get to review all the 4 scenarios I’ve pointed above. 

If we show any complacent or behavioral contempt, it’ll be a matter of time before the results will show and it’s a wasted chance to have lost some or all your money. 

I think the key message I wanted to drive here is that we should always be reviewing our strategies and temperamental regularly regardless of any of the outcomes because it is the attempt of hard work that will make the difference at the end of the day. 

This is the main reason why I like the investing game. It is a game of self-reflection and one that you can win the game if the process is right.

Thanks for reading.

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Friday, April 12, 2019

What Recently Reminded You of How Fast Time Flies?

Our elder son is turning 5 years old next week which means for both my wife and I we had him by our side for nearly 5 years of our lives now. 

For a 5 year old, that is his whole 100% of his life together with us but for my wife and I it is a relatively small portion (5/33) of our life experience which is the reason why time seems to fly past so quickly. 

It feels like it was only a while back that he’s still learning how to crawl and walk but in a blink of an eye he is able to run at full speed now. One of his favourite pastime is to watch the National Geographic and Animal Channel where he would silently sit in one corner and watch how animals run and hunt for their preys. His favourite animal creature is Cheetah, which explains why he likes to dash around the house in speed that we had to remind him to slow down. Give a few more years, he probably has his own ideas and would ignore our advice. 

To commemorate the time we spent together, we choose to keep the traditional way of album photos of each passing occasion we spent together. For instance, instead of glamorously inviting tons of visitors to our house to celebrate his birthday, we would instead bring him to Legoland and buy him a customize birthday cake. We try to keep such celebration short and simple but memorable and joyous.  
Being the writer inside me, I also love to write and document our experiences in a family and lifestyle blog which I kept separately from this finance blog I am writing. 

It has our fond memories of attending many different events that we attended such as the Children Dinosaurs Festival @ Gardens by the Bay in 2017, Toybox @ Sentosa in 2018 and all our travels moment in the past 5 years. 

Till now, we continue to believe in working hard to pursue and create more memories together. 




Days Are Long But Years Are Short

If you have read a book called “The Happiness Project” written by Gretchen Rubin, you would realize that she has a quote in her book that says like this: 

“The Days We Spent Are Long But The Years We Live Are Short” 

Many of us choose to lavishly spend our days but forget to live our years. 

I used to think that days like this flew by because we’re such a busy society in motion. We live a life where busy is king and productivity is lucrative. Our schedules are filled with work life imbalance that we often are not able to differentiate between dawn and night because the sky is always dark when we step out of the office. 

Most of us who are employees of a corporation in this capitalist society are more likely to relate to this. 

We wake up early in the morning getting ready for work only to find the outgoing crowd rushing to the same direction we are going. After enduring most of our time during the day in our prison cubicle attending to our outlook email, we still have to occasionally deal with rude client who demands for unrealistic expectations, who then call for an unproductive meeting only to realize there isn’t always a solution provided to the problem. 

Everyday is a battle struggling to get this happiness project right in our lives. 

As the years flew by, I remember what Charles Swindoll once said: “Each day of our lives we make deposits in the memory banks of our children” 

I am full of flaws and I am still working hard in refining them to get better, but I know my heart is in the right place. 

It’s the only bank that really matters in the end.

Thanks for reading.

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