Wednesday, January 30, 2019

Recent Action - Starhill Global Reit

Just a quick update.

After my previous incident covering back my position on UMS, I have some cash that I can allocate my position to and decide to further increase my position in Starhill Reit by purchasing an additional 130,000 shares at a price of 71.5 cents.

My last purchase for Starhill was on the 7th Jan when the share price was still at 68 cents, and my average price before this purchase was at 70 cents, so this additional purchase was a case of averaging up.

My total position for Starhill has now increased to 377,000 shares.



This consideration comes on the back of their recently announced Q2FY19 results, which seems like quite a disappointment to many as DPU for the quarter dropped to 1.13 cents, as compared to 1.15 cents last quarter and 1.17 cents year on year.

In the overall scheme of things, it wasn't any of a big deal because those who pays attention to closely would have realized that things will not bottom out until this quarter where the retail occupancy is at one of its lowest, and that the committed occupancy for next quarter is going to get a lot better (and hence better DPU expected).

The office occupancy has increased to 93.6% this quarter from 89.4% last quarter while the office in Adelaide has also secured a higher occupancy.

This quarter results was largely impacted by their SG portfolio, which took up 62% of the overall, and in particular the retail side especially on Wisma, which had its occupancy down this quarter.


If we compare across year on year, we can understand why DPU is down because there was a few tenants that move out of Wisma in the quarter, hence occupancy was lower at 93.5% as compared to 95.9%.

The good news is that from next quarter onwards, Wisma has a committed occupancy of 97.6%, out of which new retail brands such as Love & Bravery, AW Lab, Mujosh Lab and the F&B by Paradise Dynasty is commencing in early this year.

The lease is likely to be rented out at the current base rate.


Together with the upcoming Master Lease Toshin review at Ngee Ann in mid 2019, I think we'll see a rebound back in their performance in the next 2 quarters.

At the current share price, Starhill is trading at a P/BV of around 0.8x and a dividend yield of about 6.3%.

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Tuesday, January 29, 2019

Forced To Close Off My UMS Positions

In the spirit of being transparent, I thought I should give an update on my positions on UMS. 



Based on the last portfolio update in Jan earlier this month, I have provided an overview on my portfolio that I am holding a rather large short position in UMS of 325,000 shares. 

This was accumulated over time since my earlier position back in Nov 18 when I started to short from 66 cents, all the way down to 59 cents. 

My average price on this position was somewhere around 63 cents I think (before the interests). 

My plan was to continue to hold this short position until somewhere in mid-February when they had to announce their full year results before closing off the positions. 

With the revised 2019 negative guidance from the Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE) latest research paper, I was pretty confident holding on to this until I received a call this afternoon from an unexpected caller. 

It was a call from the brokerage I had used to short this position. 

In the call, she mentioned that the company has stopped issuing all borrowed shares to the brokers and that the brokerage is no longer able to continue to take my positions on a large amount. 

I wasn’t exactly quite sure what was happening at that time so I get my friends to check on other brokerage platform that they are using and the results were the same. 



In essence, I was given no choice but to force close the position by end of the day because there were no more stocks to short, or they will force close it on behalf. 

Either way, there were only one option. 

At around 4pm, I had to close all my position at 62 cents, and given the number of weeks I have held this position, I assume the interests are going to add up by quite a bit. 

I wasn’t too happy with the way this was handled, in particular with the short notice given to me and also the fact that I am already inside the position means the brokerage could have honoured and taken the market maker role in it, but I think they wouldn’t as a company. 

I have escalated the matter to see if I can get some sort of compensation in the form of interests or commissions waiver so they’ll get back to me about that. 

I think this is definitely a new learning platform for me because this is something that I definitely wasn’t expecting when I took on the position. 

All these time I was focusing on my margin risk and didn’t expect that an external factor like this can make or break the strategy with a single blow. 

With the covering of the position, it means I suddenly have a large pool of warchest back into my disposal (large by my standard as I don’t usually keep a lot of cash) which I will need to find the right company to allocate over time.

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Wednesday, January 23, 2019

Can SG Retail Scene Catch Up With Their Counterparts in HK?

Imagine yourself as a business owner who is looking out for a retail shop in an upper-scale mall located across either Singapore or Hongkong. 

The location could be located at the prestige Orchard Road or the Vivocity of Singapore or on the other sider at the oceanfront Harbour City or Times Square of Hongkong. 

Either location you choose are going to get you sales and visibility for your product or services, which based on historical evidence are evident on their traffic footprint.

Singapore Retail

I blogged earlier this month here on the 6th Jan 2019 on the back of SPH Reit's rental reversion results that we are going to see better days for Starhill, which I am very heavily vested in.

Since then, Starhill's share price has went up from 67.5 cents to the closing price of 71.5 cents today on the back of positive optimism.

In the article, I mentioned about how SPH Reit managed to obtain a double digit rental reversion for their new leases for Paragon and also sub mid-range reversion for their suburban malls which bode well for the overall rental market.

SPH Reit's solid rental reversion

Fraser Centerpoint Trust (FCT)'s recent result for Q1FY19 also confirms the strong demand in their suburban malls.

FCT's strong occupancy is not a surprise to many as it has always been that way for their suburban malls but what is surprising is the double digit reversion in their Causeway Point mall in Woodland. This does not come from a low base so to have a 11.1% reversion is extremely impressive.

FCT's strong rental reversion


In the Prime area, Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT)'s reported results today for their Q3 which also confirms strong occupancy and leasing demand inquiry throughout the year.

MCT's strong rental reversion

This week, CBRE came out with their retail market review for Q4 2018 which confirms signs of stabilization in the lease occupancy and increasing market demand inquiries. Their report shows an average islandwide prime rents going up by 1.2%, supported by strong occupancies demand in both prime Orchard and Suburban malls.

The big placemaking for the last quarter saw a slew of openings by activity-based tenants, as there has been a strong push by landlords and management to inject life into their malls to further attract footfall and increase dwell time.

For example, in Vivocity, they recently opened up the largest national library which I have visited with my family over the last weekend during the opening.

The new largest library in Singapore opened recently at VivoCity

In Suntec, indoor activity Superpark took up a large double storey space requirements, making them one of the anchor tenants for Suntec City.

SuperPark awesome activity at Suntec

In Marina Square, we will soon be able to witness the opening of Nerf Action Xperience sometime in Feb 2019.



In addition to the these positive outlook on demand, there are going to be a sharp tight supply in the market over the next 3 years for the upcoming new spaces.

After a roundabout opening of The Jewel in 2019 which contributes the most of that 1.58m square feet, we are going to see almost a non-existent new malls opening throughout from 2019 to 2022.

This means that if you as a business owner are looking for a space in malls where the occupancy are above 90%, this means a heavier pockets to fill in favor of the landlord's market.

SG Retail Supply getting tighter over the next 3 years

This is similar to the hospitality industry where supply is going to tighten and basic economic knowledge tells us that inelastic demand like this means we are probably going to see a gradual increase in the rental lease, barring a sharp economic downturn or blackswan.

In the 4th Quarter of 2018, prime rents in Orchard are going at around $31.7 psf while for the suburban malls like Vivo and Causeway points are going at $29.15 psf.

If we look at these rents across their competitors across Asia (in particular HK and China), they have far more leg room to catch on in the next few years.

Heck, they didn't even grow because of inflation over the past 10 years here in Singapore.

And for Singapore Tourism Board to shape Singapore as a genuine tourism hub, this must be one of the index objective they will have to grow over the next few years ahead.



E-commerce threat

The E-commerce threat question somehow always came out when we talk and discuss about the retail scene. 

The thing is landlords are now incorporating this as a compliment to the business rather than a threat.

Online retailers are increasingly moving towards an omni-channel strategy which helps to create additional demand for physical retail space.

The recent opening of the new multi-label retail concept by Plaza Singapura takes retail into a brand new territory, where they have set up Nomadx stores that engages the public about knowledge and inquisite curiosity experience which then lead them to sales online.

One example shown below is the Taobao store. 

The New Retail Concept @ Plaza Singapura

Hongkong Retail

In the past few months, I’ve been reading the performance of a few retail malls in HK as part of my watchlist. 

One of those is Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (MNACT) which has 50% of their revenue earned from their HK office and retail building – Festive Walk. 

My personal experience visiting Festive Walk, which can be found here, shows many similarities in both the concept and retail brands across both countries.

If you look at their most recent rental reversion, they managed to score a rental reversion over 40% of their previous existing leases.

That is some crazy bad ass reversion out there.

MNACT crazy 40% reversion
This doesn't come from a low base, but they simply keep growing year after year since 2004.


Leasing momentum continued to get stronger due to the recent completion of the High Speed Rail and the HK-Zhuhai-Macau bridge, which essentially opens up the inbound tourism from China and Macau right straight into HK's retail pocket.

Final Thoughts

I think there's a decent chance that we might see a strong next 10 years reversion growth in the Singapore retail industry.

If we compare Singapore's prominent location in Asia compared to other strong market like HK, China and Japan, Singapore's current rental rate is almost as dirt cheap as second or third class market in their suburban areas, which I think is quite unwarranted.

While we never know whether things might catch up over the next 10 years, I think we (or maybe just me) can be confident that things are going to get better for the retail scene here in Singapore over at least the next 3 years, and even if I am wrong on it, I think it presents a lot of margin of safety in many of my assumptions, so I am not worried over losing too much on my position on my retail Reits.

But if this goes even slightly the right way, this could be a nice multi-year double digit returns which give a nice capital appreciation on top of the high yield you are now getting.

Vested with 247,000 shares of Starhill as of writing.

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Friday, January 18, 2019

How You Can Improve Your Cashflow By Working On Other People's Time

A few days ago, I wrote an article relating to why most people need to eventually convert your active to passive income at the end of the day.

There are a few good arguments here and there that surrounds whether we need passive income in our lives but I think most people are in consensus that they need some sort of passive income, even if it's just a small part of it.



You see, it all started with the fact that time is a finite resource.

You can't be in the East on one side and be present at the same time in the West because your physical presence can only be at one point in a single time.

Technically, that means that if your earned income are based on your presence and services that you provide, you can only earn a limited amount that is capped because you are restricted by your movement and time.

This can be possible of course, that is if you are able to improve your service per hour massively over a number of years that you have been trained for.

Take for example, the renowned footballer of the year, Cristiano Ronaldo - a player whose illustrious career with Sporting Lisbon, Manchester United, Real Madrid and Juventus takes the world by storm.

Cristiano started his career with Lisbon at the age of 17 when he was earning around £18,000 per week.

He worked so hard in his career, came early for training, stayed back to practice on his set pieces and after years of hard work he was rewarded with an illustrious career move to Real Madrid where he earns a basic salary of £365k per week.

That is some crazy compounding annual growth rate if you do backwards accounting.

Cristiano's Salary with Real Madrid

By the same nature, there are some of you who are very good at climbing the corporate ladder because you are so good at what you do.

You worked hard for the project that you've been assigned to, you sacrificed your weekends to commit yourself to meeting the deadline and you've built great relationship with your peers and supervisors.

All of those amounts to efforts that you've diligently built from scratch and maintain them.

Improving Your Cashflow By Working On Other People's Time

While the above is an exemplary of what we can learn, there is a better option and that is by enhancing your skills to work on other people's time.

What exactly do I mean by that?

An entrepreneur, whose work surrounds setting up a business or company providing services or products in the hope of earning a profit, builds on a premise that in order to bring his business to the next level, he must hire people to do most of the groundwork operations while he uses his time to scale his businesses strategically.

The teams he employed are churning out the cashflow for his company on his behalf while he seeks to find another cashflow stream. 

There are inherent risks in entrepreneurship but you can see where I am coming from with the analogy.

An investor who invests in properties at a decent valuation as an owner is able to rent out his premise for rental income while waiting for capital gain appreciation in a few years time. In this analogy, the investor is using the lessee's rental over time to pay off the mortgage over the next 30 years.

Similarly, a shareholder who owns the right to vote in the company is technically an owner by nature and he earns the right to receive dividends from the profits of the company by allowing the management to manage the thousands of employees employed within the company.

In all the examples above, it exemplifies the magnitude of improving the revenue earned per hour and productivity increase.

The idea is to be able to get to a stage where you aim to earn what you did today but with a much better resource allocation of time.

Ensuring a positive cashflow under the utilization of time productivity is the essence of a true financial independence recipe.

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Thursday, January 17, 2019

InstaReM - Your Secured Remittance Platform In Town

Do you have business liaison to attend to overseas? 

If yes, you are probably familiar with the remittance and transfer platform that you have been using to transfer your funds overseas either to your business partner or vendor. 

While bank transfer appears to be the most frequently used platform because it is directly debited from your account, you have to be mindful of how much transfer fees and the impact of the currency exchange the bank charges to their advantages. 

Often, this resulted in spreads that can eat into your margins. 

Some banks came up with a promo that charges zero fees on the transfers.

There are no free lunches in the world. 

When your remittance dealer tells you that they charge zero fees on your transfer, it usually means that they are increasing these charges elsewhere, such as increasing the margins on their currency exchange so that it may look attractive to the users.

InstaRem, abbreviation of Instant Remittance, has branded themselves as a low-cost money transfer provider in town that provides competitively margin-free FX rates and the best transfer amount guarantee.

They are founded in 2014 and is proudly a Singapore-headquartered Fintech company that enables money transfers from Australia, Singapore, Hongkong, Malaysia, India, UK, Europe and USA to over 55 countries across the world.

They have already established a strong presence in Asia and have recently received Series C-funding to brand themselves competitively.

The FX Conversion is straightforward and transparent and users do not need to be afraid of incurring hidden charges later on.




All of InstaReM’s charges are based on charging a small fees between 0.25% to 0.50%, which makes it attractive to users who would like to transfer in small batches. 

The same fee applies on volume transactions too.

One thing I like about InstaReM is their stringent check on users when they signed up, which shows professionalism on compliance and their Zero-Margin FX Rates, which are rates that they directly source from Reuters. That means that unlike banks, they don't earn from this and they keep themselves very competitively place on the global map.

Here's how InstaReM stacks up against the other competitors.


Instarem - Winner for Asia Presence and Definitely better than banks

If you are a first time user transferring any amount higher than SGD300, you can key in the promo code FFF10 which will entitle you to a first time users of $10 on your first successful transaction.

You can sign up via the Link I have provided you here, which will entitle me to a very minimal affiliation fee. You will not be disadvantaged should you decide not to do sign up via this link otherwise.


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Tuesday, January 15, 2019

5 Reasons Why You Need To Convert Your Active to Passive Income At The End Of The Day

Having worked professionally in the accounting and finance field for more than a decade in 4 different companies throughout my career, you would have thought I have a plethora group of friends and colleagues who likes to convert their active into passive income like myself. 

That is not the case. 

Within my circle group of friends and colleagues, this number amounts to a minority and you would think it is strange that for someone who is handling other people’s money or accounts on a daily basis, he or she would have taken more charge and responsibilities in their day to day personal finances planning for their own future. 

You see, that’s a problem with how the modern corporate world grinding has done to us. 


First, they managed to legally drug most of the working people with a monthly dose medicine in the form of a fixed salary to ensure we clock our time faithfully from 9 to 6 during the first 5 days of the week. Over time, we get so used to receiving a timely payment and increment yearly that it is difficult to break away from the golden handcuff. 

Next, they kept us busy by giving us tasks so we can work on looking for the solution to the problem.  
And that gives us hardly time for ourselves at the end of the day – thinking hard objectively about what we want to achieve for ourselves. 

Here are the 5 reasons why you need to convert your active to passive income as fast as possible. 

1.) You Are Your Own Priority 

No one else is in charge of your own well being other than yourself. 

That means we should try as much as we can to prison break away from the golden handcuff that has held us for a number of years. 

As much as you enjoy your job, you need to look after your own best interests and sometimes that means being selfish about some of the things which you may need to sacrifice. Example would be sacrificing the wants to buy a luxury bag in favor of savings.

2.) Companies’ Priorities Are So Damn Crystal Clear 

As a shareholder of some of the companies I owned (see what companies I’m vested here), the most important thing is to see the company doing well. 

This can be attributed by an improved topline or bottomline margins, increase in sustainable dividend payout, a roadmap for future outlook plan and ultimately a capital gain in the share price. 

An employee’s well being which comprises of a salary increment and bonuses are important in driving some of these things but you can see they are much lower in the priority. 

If there is an economic slowdown which resulted in a lower margin or if there are projects that don’t go as planned, you can bet that I would vote in favor for a lower employees’ bonuses.

3.) Our Body’s Finite Energy Timeline 

Sometimes, we do not know what surprises our health might give to us. 

On one moment, we can be very healthy by keeping ourselves fit through the proper exercise, eating regular meals and keeping tabs on regular check-ups. 

The next moment, we can be down with illness and some of these illness can be fatal. 

When our body gets weaker, we may not be able to perform to the required level a previous role we had committed. 

We may be forced to downgrade to a role which the body can take it. 

4.) You Can Make Your Passive Income As Regular And As Addictive As Your Active Income 

I used to be like everyone else in the past getting so used to the regular payout from my monthly income and becoming dependent on them over time to tide over the month. 

When I first switched over to dividend investing, it didn’t make a big impact to my life because the amount is immaterial to affect any change. 

But slowly over time, this amount compounds and I become interested into it more and more each time. 

Now, I grow quite addicted to it that when I receive my monthly salary, the first thing I would do is to transfer over some of those funds right into my investment account, buying more dividend companies which in turn give me a higher dividend payout. 

5.) Everyone Needs To Retire From An Active Income At Some Point 

Whether we like it or not, there will come a time when we eventually need to retire from an active income and shift our gear towards a more regular passive income in nature. 

Since that is just a matter of time, why not make it a reality as early as we can while we are still younger and we can allow room for errors if it should come to that. 

Starting early also allow room for compounding to take place, which can be massive if the time stretch is longer.

What Do You Guys Think?

Is There A Need To Convert Your Active To Passive Income At Some Point?

Is It Just A Matter of Time or Is That A Choice?

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Monday, January 14, 2019

What We Learnt From Watching Marie Kondo (Minimalism series)

I spent my time during the weekend watching with my wife an ongoing popular series on Netflix called Tidying Up with Marie Kondo

We barely watched only the first episode but it has already brought a change impact in us.

In the first episode, KonMarie talked about why we should spend time tidying up our home, a precious place in our hearts that we spent many countless hours on every single day.



She came to visit a couple who's living in the California area, and had two young children at home with them which makes it more challenging in the aspect of tidying up.

We can relate well to the family because our circumstances are very alike in the sense that we bought many things for our children that space becomes a crunch in a span of a few months. We suffered the same like what was described in the episode as a desire to long for more than what we need to which gives a vicious cycle to keep buying for more stuff, and in turn filled the space of the house even more. 

KonMarie started the tidying up process with the clothing in the wardrobe.

She subsequently challenged the conscious mind of the couple by asking how many of these clothes do they really need and use. 

She uses a method what she described as having a sparking joy. When we feel and touch these clothes, one layer at a time, we should ideally feel a sense of belonging and happiness which indicates a desire to keep these clothes. If the clothes bring no joy, it should be discarded or donated away. The last thing she wants is for someone to keep piling up the drawer with clothes that they have no attachment to.

After tidying up the wardrobe, she would then move to other sections of the house, such as the kitchen and garage. 

What strikes me the most from this simple episode was when she mentioned how much sentimental things we have kept in the garage that we don’t see on the day to day and yet we chose to keep stuff that aren’t important yet strikingly visible to fill up the space. 

For example, sentimental things such as wedding or childhood photos should not be kept in a garage because the occurrence of seeing them is much lesser on a day to day basis. They should be out in the living room or somewhere accessible so one can retrieve them quickly and remind what is the real important to them.

I like this episode because it speaks about the modern minimalism which has consciously shape our minds to become better yet more simplistic in nature. 

It tells us that strength and happiness comes in the form of not needing more but less and in that process of refining our balances, we can actually derive the same joy as we have been when we were spending on things that we think are necessary but is actually not.

We get started on decluttering on our things immediately.

Time to donate away those clothes and boxes


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Friday, January 11, 2019

Jan 19 - Portfolio & Networth Update

Hello 2019!

Since I stopped updating on my portfolio 4 months ago, I've received lots of inquiries from readers asking me to reinstate back this post.

After much deliberation, I've decided to republish them again in my blog starting this month with the January's update. 

While I don’t exactly know how these updates will benefit readers who are requesting for these updates, I hope they are not using this the wrong way.

For myself, I am using the update to justify for accountability to myself which is mainly to articulate my summary thoughts in a more organized manner and why I decided to hold/buy/sell and make certain decisions.



Overall Markets

Let's first start with the observation of the overall market.

This has been a pretty smooth sailing month so far.

STI ended the year in 2018 with last closed at 3,068 and barely within 2 weeks the market has moved up to 3,200, which represents a 4% gain year to date. 

I had my hopes high this year for the market to tank not because I am loaded with cash but because I know I will be able to load up more stocks in this accumulation stage of my life. 

Contrary to many people, I actually feel great when I see the market tanks, even when I am almost fully vested.

Still, we are now in the very early stage of the year so there will be turns and surprises, which is what is great about the market because of its unpredictability.

Anyone who says they are able to predict with high probability on how the market moves should openly show how much skin they have in the market. That will give you some sorts of indication on the conviction they have.

For me, I tried to be vested in the market whenever there are still some great valuations in the market that I can find.

That's all I can do for now.

No.
 Counters
No. of Shares
Market Price (SGD)
Total Value (SGD) based on market price
Allocation %
1.
Vicom
  31,300
6.00
187,800.00
19.0%
2.
Frasers Logistic Trust
162,200
1.06
171,932.00
17.0%
3.
Starhill Reit
247,000
0.69
170,430.00
17.0%
4.
Far East Hospitality Trust
230,000
0.63
144,900.00
15.0%
5.
Manulife Reit
  81,000
US$0.81
  90,542.00
11.0%
6.
UMS (Short)
325,000
0.60
195,000.00
20.0%
7.
Warchest
    2,000
    2,000.00
  1.0%
Total
962,604.00
100%






Less:
CFD Leverage @ 3.2%


(108,620.00)







Net Total



853,984.00
100%

Portfolio Updates

1.) Vicom 

Vicom remains my top position in the portfolio going into 2019 due to the defensive nature of its' cashflow and predictability of dividends which is high at 6%.

With full year results coming up next month, I think we will not see much surprises and I expect them to maintain if not announced a slightly higher dividends than the previous year of 36 cents.

I had previously mentioned Vicom as one of the two companies in the offensive-defensive partner rebalancing in my strategy last year (you can read them Here).

It is still applicable for this year.

2.) Frasers Logistics Trust 

FLT took up the 2nd position in the portfolio because they have performed very well since their inception days a few years ago.

It is currently yielding close to 7%.

If there’s anything to pick about this Reit, it will be their expansion plan to move to a different geographical areas in Europe and with multiple properties in the portfolio it increases the difficulty to pass judgement on how well these properties are doing and weigh them across the overall portfolio.

Still, being a Reit under the strong sponsor of the Frasers Group and a proven management, I expect them to maintain a slow but decent performance over the years.

I just need to be a little wary to ensure they are not expanding aggressively for sake of expanding and destroy rather than enhance shareholders' value.

3.) Starhill Global Reit 

Starhill summed up my top 3 positions in the portfolio.

I strongly think they will have a decent chance for a turnaround this year, backed by an attractive valuation and turnaround in their earnings which will lead to higher dividends.

I had blogged about my personal take on Starhill not too long ago which you can read Here so I won’t repeat much of it again.

4.) Far East Hospitality Trust

If you have been following my blog, you would have realized that I regularly mention about my bullishness position in the hospitality industry and in particular used Far East Hospitality Trust as an example.

Like Starhill, I think this will be a good year for Feht with turnaround in the revpar earnings from the hotels, a lower hotel supply over the next few years, combined with a strong tourism demand for the years ahead.

I believe the stars are aligned.


5.) Manulife Reit

This is the smallest position I have in my portfolio and rightly so because I am still trying to learn about the property sectors in the US and some of their regulations, which can be very tricky for overseas investors or companies that are being listed overseas.

I have tried to read up and study on the Barbados tax law regulations which I have exchanged some thoughts with Kyith from Investment Moats, who are more well-versed with some of these updates.

My take is that despite the result, this is still very much a grey area and one which could haunt back whenever such clauses are being brought up to surface.

Because of the same reason, I took a loss by cutting my previous position on KBS but managed to keep Manulife so they broke even.

6.) UMS

UMS is currently the only open short position I have in my portfolio.

Since I last blogged them on the 15th Nov (you can read it Here), the share price has dived further down from 66 cents to a low of 56 cents before rebounding to the current support/resistance of 60 cents.

During these interims when they rebounded back, I took up this opportunity to further accumulate my positions in various stages by leveraging at it almost at 2x

The idea is to hold them until next month when they announce their full year results in Feb.

There were enough indicators to indicate this might work out.

Apple and Samsung gave an early signal lead on the chips sector that outlook on the demand are not going to be rosy and with increasing trend of past unused inventory, it is easy to assume that the demand are lower than what these companies are expecting.

The lower capex to spend also assume that the sector is undergoing a slower growth which I believe there are further rooms to fall for semicon stocks.

For UMS, it adds the spice because they have diversified into something else, which might be good for long term investors but bad for short term investors. With the high capex spend this year, it is expected that to conserve the same amount of cash flow, they would have to cut back on the dividends paid which they had already do so in the interim.

Networth Update

The portfolio ended the year at $833,750 in 2018.

This month, the market has started brightly and the portfolio has gone up to $853,984 (+2.4% month on month; +38.8% year on year).

It is also the 13th consecutive month increase since Dec 2017 so I am pleased to see the results turning out to be rather fine.


Jan 2019


Final Thoughts

So that is the overall updates for this first month of the year.

I hope I don't go overly bomballistic on some of these items and I hope it might help some readers to think about it from a different angle.

There will be plenty of monitoring mode in this year strategy so patience will be really key.

Patience does not mean you have to be holding a large amount of warchest at any point in time, it is just about striking at the right moment, and rebalancing them when you see it as necessary.

How's your month coming along so far?

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Sunday, January 6, 2019

Starhill Global Reit - Should See Better Days Ahead

SPH Reit's recent Q1FY19 results show something promising for the retail rent sector as they managed to negotiate for a 10.1% positive rental reversion for the renewed leases that expire in Q1FY19 for the Paragon properties.

The Orchard central area continues to bounce back strongly on the back of strong high occupancy and the low supply pipeline for the next upcoming 5 years.

This is the latest I have extracted from the URA website.


The office space is doing well from what we see on the price and rental index, but that only takes up 5% of the total NPI for Starhill, so that isn't very significant.

The biggest move would need to come from the Singapore retail from their Wisma Atria and Ngee Ann City properties, which takes up 50% of the total NPI.

If this moves, the share price will move accordingly, usually in the same correlation.

Thus, my turnaround play would have to depend on this one.


Starhill has a next Toshin rental review in Jun 2019, which I think will be the key for a positive rental reversion that follows that to SPH Reit.

I think we should see better days ahead for Starhill performance.

This is just a quick update but an incomplete analysis of the stock.

And I think at 6.6% yield currently, it is an opportunity for investors to keep accumulating.

*Vested and will continue to accumulate

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