Thursday, August 24, 2017

Guest Post - Cost of Flour More Than Cost of Bread

We have our regular contributor CK here who writes and provides good insight into the industry he has expertise on.

I am learning a lot just by exchanging emails and chatting with him so it's another pleasure of mine for him to provide his thoughts on the recent development ongoing with our property rush.

One of the most significant development in the local real estate market in recent memory is the fully sold out of EC at Hougang, Hundred Palms in seven hours in 22 July 2017. See first blog post here on the quick sales cycle and high return on equity the developer is likely to enjoy till the project obtain TOP. 

The local property market has not seen a fully sold out (or almost fully sold out EC) since Lake Life EC in Jurong back in October 2014. The high demand (yes there are many disappointment buyers who never get a unit) was attributed to it being the first EC in Hougang, near a good school (1km from Rosyth School). Interestingly, a Straits Times article mentioned most of the buyers are concentrated in the nearby housing estate of Hougang, Serangoon, Sengkang and Punggol. The “supply” of potential upgraders is likely to be very high given the large number of flats that will reach the five year minimum occupancy period in Punggol/Seng Kang. This could bode well to private properties and more so for EC for it is the most natural route of upgrade for most Singaporeans.

The above event signal the key factor in driving real estate prices such as demand/supply, demographics and government policies. To add twist to the development on the seven hour sale were sale of 2 land plots within the vicinity the very next week.

The sale of flour is more expensive than the sale of bread. Interesting times indeed.

Quickly, you can see that developers like Guocoland is holding on to their prized assets in launching the next phase of their Martin Modern now that the property seems to be picking up. This is way in stark contrast to last year when developers are throwing everything at a discount. Seems like we have a market back on its way up again.

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  1. And so have you sold Guocoland?


    1. Hi Anonymous

      Thanks, and yes I have divested Guocoland just last Thursday.

    2. May I ask the reason why do you not hold till the next earning announcement date (29th Aug)? Do you not expect a good result?

    3. Hi Anonymous

      I am expecting a decent results but theres a huge selling volume at $2.30 so I am not sure if they'll clear that. I'll take my chances though could hv gone either way.

    4. Hi B,

      I am New to investing and was just wondering how do you tell what the price was at for the selling volume?

      Much appreciated and thanks! Really enjoy all the posts u have written.

  2. Hi Mr. Halim,

    This is Nicole again,
    I just saw your reply in the thread

    If you can remember you replied as below,

    'Many thanks for your kind words. Unfortunately, I am not a professional consultant hence I do not meet up with people to provide advice to people regarding finances and investing. I'd be happy to help if I can if you have particular question you want to ask in the email'

    So I sent you an email asking some questions (not asking for a meet up) - and I just checked you reply and you wrote 'Not interested, thanks.'.
    Would you be able to clarify what you mean by this? Since you told me to email you, I did but don't understand why you'd say you are not interested?

    I think there has been some misunderstanding, all we asked you in 3rd the email was how to improve our financial acumen. If you don't want to give advice just let me know.



    1. Hypocrite person lor :D

    2. Hi Nicole

      Perhaps there are some misunderstandings here.

      I did not receive any email from your husband other than your email which mentioned the above. If you could resend it to me, I'll definitely see if there's anything I can help, thanks.

  3. I'm very confused since you offered help in the first place and I emailed you as you requested, but suddenly you say you are not interested..??

    1. Hi Metamorphosis

      What kind of help exactly that you need? Perhaps you can directly write here and I can see if I can help? Do note that I am not a licensed operator, so you really need to get a qualified financial consultant if you are really interested in investing stuff.

  4. Hi B, nice reading your blog.
    so what is your conclusion on the property market?
    is it really going up now?

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